Maritime desk

The record’s date

Sources through 10 Nov; the issuing-authority documents through 7 Nov; the market sensor through 2 Oct.

What this record is

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Why we keep a record on it. We hold 1154 documents from 219 outlets over 43 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including African Economy, AI Advancements General, Anti Corruption. 32 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it. Our first document on this subject is dated Sep 26, 2026; the count above is everything since.

What it is not. Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hormuz. 219 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet. Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.

How complete this record is: full. It meets 3 of 3 conditions: a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself; a claim carried from three or more separate origins; at least one market question bound to this record.

The press archive: scope, views and limits

Computed Nov 11; last re-checked Nov 11. Each claim below carries its own first-seen date.

Scope, first: 5950 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-08-25 and 2026-11-10 — secondary press; this news ledger does not read primary feeds, which the record reads separately in its primary-source layer (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes, NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) with their own dates. Everything here speaks for that archive only. A claim is scored by how many separate reports assert it; copies of one wire story count once. Agreement between reports is not proof. The “why” is a view, listed with who said it, never averaged.

A receipt links the archived article where we read the claim, often a roundup, so a receipt’s own headline can differ from the claim it carries. All 4,105 sentences are listed under “What separate sources agree on”, folded.

Outside reporting, newest captured

• 10 Nov

  LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Hits Highest Level Since Iran War Began

  Oil Price · outlet

  Oil Price▸
• 9 Nov

  Iraq Strikes U.S. Deal to Boost Oil Exports Through Hormuz

  Oilprice.com · outlet

  Oilprice.com▸
• date not on file

  U.S. Military Coordinates With Saudi Oil Tankers on Risky Hormuz Crossings

  oilprice.com · outlet

  oilprice.com▸

The views: how different outlets explain it

Each with who said it, never averaged. The 3 with the most separate articles:

• 3 articles

  A campaign of heavy bombardment failed to bring a decisive close to the war launched by the US and Israel in late February, and Washington in recent weeks has dialled back military operations in favour of economic pressure.

  Said by foreign policy, france 24 - international breaking news, top stories and headlines

  Where from▸
• 3 articles

  Axios and CNN both reported, citing unidentified US officials, that Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and free Iranian funds as part of a final deal on the condition that Iran showed "concrete progress" on the nuclear issue.

  Said by al-monitor — middle east, daily sabah economy

  Where from▸
• 3 articles

  Trump has cited preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb as a key goal of the war, along with ending its ability to attack its neighbours and creating conditions for Iranians to topple their leadership.

  Said by al-monitor — middle east, daily sabah economy

  Where from▸

• Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.
• Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.
• Retroactive: computed 2026-11-11 over the archive, not tracked live.
• Receipt gate: 83 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).
• Relative-anchor supersession: 3 claim(s) that described themselves as the most recent/last-known fact were retired because a claim from the SAME reporting thread, naming the same participants and the same measured quantity, describes a later instance of that subject — see 'retired'. Subject-matched, same-chain detection only: an anchor claim updated by a DIFFERENT outlet is not auto-retired, though its own firstSeen/lastSeen still render so a reader can judge its age.
• Relative-anchor supersession: 35636 later same-thread claim(s) were NOT treated as replacing an anchored claim: 27387 are about different participants, a different measured quantity or a forecast, 8248 could not be read role for role or period for period, 1 compare against another time, 0 characterize or restate the same value and 0 report an earlier or the same period. A claim is replaced here only by a later report on the same participants and the same measured quantity, for a later period; every other pair keeps both claims standing.
• Questions: 21 extracted sentence(s) were questions (a headline asking, e.g. "Trump said on Truth Social: 'Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change th"), not assertions, and take no claim standing in any tier.
• Literal-span counting (#1036): 644 extracted claim(s) were receipted by sentences that do not all assert the same proposition, and were split into 1499 separate claims, each counted only on the sources whose own sentence asserts it. Every count, disagreement and replacement here is decided on the sources' own words; the extractor's sentence is kept as a labelled paraphrase and decides nothing.
• Domain-competence gate: 3102 kernel claim(s) and 422 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.
• Semantic-dome membership: 12616 kernel claim(s) and 2877 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.
• An item is published only when it is RECEIPTED: the outlet's own source link AND the source's exact words (verbatim: a literal span of the stored document, offsets into it, content-addressed by docId). The claim text is the extracted proposition and is never a quote. Anything else is UNRECEIPTED: retained, counted here by reason, never shown; every published count is computed from receipted items only.
• Disagreement pairing: 20 candidate pair(s) with overlapping words and different numbers were NOT shown as disagreements: 3 report separate incidents or readings (another named date or time, another vessel, or reported on another day), 13 assert different propositions (another party or quantity) and 4 could not be matched role for role. Two reports disagree here only when they give different values for the same actor, counterparty, quantity and incident: the same named date, or the same report day when no date is named.
• Event grouping (event@2): 4105 claim(s) are source sentences; 421 were grouped into 180 multi-sentence event(s) and 2360 matched no other claim, giving 2540 event(s). 1324 claim(s) could not be matched (untyped action class, no participant read, or no report day), so their count stays per sentence: could not match is not single source. The rule is mechanical and conservative (same typed action, shared participants and wording, no different named person or market, first seen within 1 day, no conflicting date, time, vessel, means (mine, missile, drone, boarding, gunfire) or value, every member matched to one anchor), so it under-groups: it measures reporting agreement about one incident, not verification.

Our coverage

What our own machinery collected and how closely it watches. These measure our attention, not the strait.

• Documents

  1,154

  From 219 outlets. Documents arrived on 43 days between 26 Sept 2026 and 10 Nov 2026. Market questions are not counted, because a question is not reporting.

  219 outlets, documents on 43 days▸

• How closely we watch

  rising ↑

  Our coverage of Hormuz is 26% above its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.

  our attention metric▸

• Days with an attention reading

  180 days

  In the latest collection (10 Nov 2026), 205 signals in 32 of our coverage areas mention it.

• Market questions on the event

  32

  The Strait of Hormuz event has carried 32 market questions since 24 May 2026, last priced 9 Nov 2026.

  Strait of Hormuz▸

What changed, and when

The ledger holds 5 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Nov 9, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. The ledger began recording 2026-07-19; earlier states were tracked but not ledgered, and are not backfilled.

• 6 Nov

  How closely we watch: changed from rising to too little history to judge

  observed Nov 6, 7:52 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 31, 8:48 AM PT

• 6 Nov

  Front-page listing: changed from flagged to on watch

  observed Nov 6, 7:52 AM PT · prior state held since Oct 31, 8:48 AM PT

• 7 Nov

  How closely we watch: changed from too little history to judge to steady

  observed Nov 7, 9:22 AM PT · prior state held since Nov 6, 7:52 AM PT

• 7 Nov

  Front-page listing: changed from on watch to flagged

  observed Nov 7, 9:22 AM PT · prior state held since Nov 6, 7:52 AM PT

• 9 Nov

  How closely we watch: changed from steady to rising

  observed Nov 9, 7:53 AM PT · prior state held since Nov 7, 9:22 AM PT

Every market question

What prediction markets price: belief, not fact, and never proof that something happened. We cite the venues as a sensor and publish no probability of our own. Our public grading of that sensor scores those prices against how reality resolved.

8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Nov 10, 2026: 7 still open by their own deadline, 1 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.

Our read

• ● measured

  What the issuing authorities say. UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 106, dated 18 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 434/26, dated 7 Nov 2026. Read from the issuer Nov 10, 2026.

• ● measured

  How well the claims are supported. Of 12 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026), 6 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say Two Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Catch Fire Near Strait Of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 10 publishers from 9 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 4, 2026); “Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, minister says” (corroborated; carried by 9 publishers from 8 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 5, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive.

• ● measured

  What rests on one source. 2434 of the 2540 events in this record's press archive (its 4105 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 1324 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration.

• Not yet read

  What contradicts. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident.

• ● measured

  Where reports give different numbers. No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. The record also holds 4 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ.

• ● measured

  What changed. The ledger holds 5 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Nov 9, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions.

• ● measured

  The outside sensor, beside our record. Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” at 28% (polymarket, Nov 10, 2026), while our own record holds 6 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record.

• ● measured

  Earlier documents on file. Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them.

What this record does not tell you

Standing limits of the method, true of every run:

• The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.
• The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (144 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.
• Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous.

Verify it yourself

This page, GET /api/record/hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity("hormuz") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, not this record.

Served to machines as the resource sb://exhibit/hormuz, and through the API and MCP.

REST

curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz

MCP

curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"get_topic_record","arguments":{"subject":"hormuz"}}}'

Where this record comes from

This record reads as of 10 Nov 2026, assembled 10 Nov 2026. Its version number is sb.tr-e12baf42, computed from the sections above, so it changes only when the record’s content changes.

Informational only, never financial, legal, or investment advice.