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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Trump

Donald Trump — the 45th and 47th president of the United States.

Coverage of Trump is rising : 127 signals on the latest tracked day, up 9% from its three-week baseline of 117, across 35 domains (up from 31 a week ago). That makes it the #2 most-covered of the 274 concerns we track.

If Trump matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

5 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,450 tracked stories from 214 outlets, reporting on Trump most often describes public statements (176), military action (132), sanctions or trade (81), meetings or visits (43), elections (35), ceasefire or deal (33).

It shows up alongside Iran (431 — meetings or visits ×12, ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×2), Israel (293 — ceasefire or deal ×13), Hormuz (252), Gaza (196 — ceasefire or deal ×26), Middle East (143 — ceasefire or deal ×2), Saudi Arabia (126), Oman (120), United States (244).

Two steps out: Oil (through Iran, 410 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Iran, 290 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Iran, 272 shared stories on the weaker link); AI (through United States, 144 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 87 separate days — concentrated in Middle East.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Trump out as President before 2027?” fell 4 points between Jun 24 and Aug 8, from 10% to 6%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
Ask the engine about Trump + Track Trump for a daily read
Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jun 24 – Aug 8, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 8, 7:12 PM PT