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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Trump

Donald Trump — the 45th and 47th president of the United States.

Coverage of Trump is holding steady : 210 signals on the latest tracked day, up 81% from its three-week baseline of 116, across 12 domains (down from 83 a week ago). That makes it the #18 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Trump is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 116 signals a day across 12 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 145+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 12. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 4,528 tracked stories from 424 outlets, reporting on Trump most often describes public statements (464), military action (255), meetings or visits (238), sanctions or trade (210), rate decisions (107), elections (96).

It shows up alongside President Donald Trump (1997), Iran (1417 — meetings or visits ×9, sanctions or trade ×8, ceasefire or deal ×3), United States (1363), Oil (1007 — sanctions or trade ×3, meetings or visits ×2), China (955 — meetings or visits ×34, sanctions or trade ×4), Congress (870), White House (870), AI (868 — meetings or visits ×16).

Two steps out: Hormuz (through Iran, 1333 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Iran, 1222 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Iran, 1162 shared stories on the weaker link); Saudi Arabia (through Iran, 1008 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 112 separate days.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Trump out as President before 2027?” fell 2 points between Aug 12 and Sep 26, from 6% to 4%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:55 PM PT