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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Taiwan

A self-governed island claimed by China; it manufactures most of the world's advanced semiconductors, placing it at the center of technology and security risk.

Coverage of Taiwan is fading : 4 signals on the latest tracked day, down 20% from its three-week baseline of 5, across 4 domains (down from 8 a week ago). That makes it the #255 most-covered of the 274 concerns we track.

If Taiwan matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 127 tracked stories from 58 outlets, reporting on Taiwan most often describes disaster (21), acquisition (4), public statements (4), launches or releases (3), military action (2), sanctions or trade (2).

It shows up alongside Earthquake (23), China (40), Japan (35), AI (29), South Korea (22), Semiconductor (21), Iran (18), United States (16).

Two steps out: Anthropic (through China, 40 shared stories on the weaker link); CMS (through China, 40 shared stories on the weaker link); Microsoft (through China, 40 shared stories on the weaker link); Nvidia (through China, 40 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 6, with coverage on 40 separate days — concentrated in Geophysical.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jun 24 – Aug 8, 36 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 8, 8:40 PM PT