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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Taiwan

A self-governed island claimed by China; it manufactures most of the world's advanced semiconductors, placing it at the center of technology and security risk.

Coverage of Taiwan is holding steady : 30 signals on the latest tracked day, up 150% from its three-week baseline of 12, across 8 domains (down from 26 a week ago). That makes it the #213 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Taiwan is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 12 signals a day across 8 domains (44 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 15+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 8. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Geopolitics Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 546 tracked stories from 162 outlets, reporting on Taiwan most often describes disaster (30), meetings or visits (22), public statements (20), launches or releases (16), military action (14), sanctions or trade (12).

It shows up alongside China (322 — meetings or visits ×3), Japan (212), AI (200), South Korea (187), Semiconductor (105), Asian (126), United States (136), Iran (88).

Two steps out: Immigration (through China, 322 shared stories on the weaker link); India (through China, 322 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through China, 322 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through China, 322 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 6, with coverage on 58 separate days — concentrated in South Korea and Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 44 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 6:20 PM PT