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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Congress

The legislative branch of the U.S. government; the House of Representatives and the Senate together.

Coverage of Congress is holding steady : 98 signals on the latest tracked day, up 308% from its three-week baseline of 24, across 12 domains (down from 58 a week ago). That makes it the #47 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Congress is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 24 signals a day across 12 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 30+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 12. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,036 tracked stories from 336 outlets, reporting on Congress most often describes public statements (116), elections (65), military action (55), meetings or visits (44), launches or releases (39), legal rulings (39).

It shows up alongside Trump (870), Republican (501), United States (494), Senate (491), President Donald Trump (474), White House (360), Democrat (348), AI (346).

Two steps out: China (through Trump, 870 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through Trump, 870 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through Trump, 870 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Trump, 728 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 70 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?” held at 8% between Sep 5 and Sep 6.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:53 PM PT