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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Iran

A major Middle Eastern state whose oil, nuclear program, and regional proxies keep it central to Gulf security.

Coverage of Iran is fading : 86 signals on the latest tracked day, down 23% from its three-week baseline of 111, across 15 domains (down from 18 a week ago). That makes it the #5 most-covered of the 274 concerns we track.

If Iran matters to your work, attention is draining away — the pace of news no longer demands a daily check.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran below the three-week baseline — a sustained cooling, not a one-day dip.

What the reporting says

Across 1,379 tracked stories from 218 outlets, reporting on Iran most often describes public statements (213), military action (158), meetings or visits (58), sanctions or trade (26), launches or releases (23), economic releases (19).

It shows up alongside Hormuz (475 — meetings or visits ×4, ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×2), Trump (431 — meetings or visits ×12, ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×2), Saudi Arabia (254), Israel (344 — meetings or visits ×2), Oman (217), Middle East (291 — ceasefire or deal ×2), Yemen (144), Oil (410 — meetings or visits ×4, ceasefire or deal ×2).

Two steps out: Gaza (through Israel, 344 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through Trump, 244 shared stories on the weaker link); Tariffs (through Trump, 177 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Oil, 121 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 13, with coverage on 88 separate days — concentrated in Middle East and Iran Regime.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” rose 2 points between Jun 24 and Aug 8, from 14% to 16%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jun 24 – Aug 8, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 8, 7:11 PM PT