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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Coverage of Hormuz is rising : 30 signals on the latest tracked day, up 15% from its three-week baseline of 26, across 11 domains (up from 8 a week ago). That makes it the #32 most-covered of the 274 concerns we track.

If Hormuz matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

What the reporting says

Across 569 tracked stories from 83 outlets, reporting on Hormuz most often describes public statements (96), military action (61), meetings or visits (27), sanctions or trade (8), acquisition (7), ceasefire or deal (6).

It shows up alongside Iran (475 — meetings or visits ×4, ceasefire or deal ×3, sanctions or trade ×2), Oman (209), Oil (297), Saudi Arabia (169), Trump (252), Israel (196), Middle East (171), Yemen (101).

Two steps out: Russia (through Iran, 290 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Iran, 272 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through Trump, 244 shared stories on the weaker link); Gaza (through Trump, 196 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 37 separate days — concentrated in Iran Regime and Energy.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?” fell 28 points between Jul 3 and Aug 8, from 40% to 12%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Jun 24 – Aug 8, 45 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Aug 8, 7:11 PM PT