Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes.
Coverage of Hormuz is holding steady : 116 signals on the latest tracked day, up 427% from its three-week baseline of 22, across 11 domains (down from 31 a week ago). That makes it the #43 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.
Hormuz is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 22 signals a day across 11 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 28+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 11. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.
What’s changed
7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.
- Vessels trickle through Strait of Hormuz as Middle East conflict persists · Al Arabiya English · 2026-09-22
- Live - US, France move to protect Hormuz as Qatar pushes Iran talks · Iran International · 2026-09-22
- Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls Further as Saudi Oil Flows Rise · Oil Price · 2026-09-21
- Qatar Energy Chief Says Bessent ‘Wrong’ About Hormuz Future · gCaptain · 2026-09-21
- Projectile hits tanker as it enters the Strait of Hormuz · France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 2026-09-21
- Pakistan Secures Second Qatari LNG Cargo Through Hormuz After Iran Deal · Oil Price · 2026-09-21
What the reporting says
Across 1,664 tracked stories from 167 outlets, reporting on Hormuz most often describes military action (228), public statements (213), meetings or visits (91), sanctions or trade (36), price levels (35), rate decisions (23).
It shows up alongside Oil (1116), Red Sea (463), Saudi Arabia (653), Iran (1333 — meetings or visits ×14, sanctions or trade ×6), Yemen (533 — meetings or visits ×2), Middle East (717), Trump (648), United States (551).
Two steps out: Israel (through Iran, 1162 shared stories on the weaker link); China (through Iran, 904 shared stories on the weaker link); President Donald Trump (through Iran, 821 shared stories on the weaker link); Inflation (through Oil, 744 shared stories on the weaker link).
Tracked since Apr 12, with coverage on 56 separate days — concentrated in Iran Regime and Energy.
What the crowd is pricing
The odds the crowd puts on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” fell 24 points between Aug 12 and Sep 26, from 46% to 22%.