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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

OpenAI

The AI lab behind ChatGPT and the GPT model family.

Coverage of OpenAI is holding steady : 46 signals on the latest tracked day, down 19% from its three-week baseline of 57, across 11 domains (down from 39 a week ago). That makes it the #139 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

OpenAI is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 57 signals a day across 11 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 71+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 11. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our AI & Compute Desk.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,347 tracked stories from 343 outlets, reporting on OpenAI most often describes public statements (173), launches or releases (128), IPOs or listings (47), acquisition (43), funding rounds (32), military action (28).

It shows up alongside Anthropic (1276 — meetings or visits ×3), AI (1841 — acquisition ×5, meetings or visits ×2), Google (608 — meetings or visits ×2), China (403), Gemini (261), AI Models (393), Meta (368), Nvidia (352).

Two steps out: Papers (through AI, 1076 shared stories on the weaker link); Citation (through AI, 1013 shared stories on the weaker link); Citations (through AI, 998 shared stories on the weaker link); Explorer (through AI, 981 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 3, with coverage on 168 separate days — concentrated in AI Investing and Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:53 PM PT