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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Inflation

The rate at which prices rise across an economy; central banks steer it with interest rates.

Coverage of Inflation is holding steady : 56 signals on the latest tracked day, up 133% from its three-week baseline of 24, across 10 domains (down from 44 a week ago). That makes it the #108 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Inflation is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 24 signals a day across 10 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 30+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 10. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,157 tracked stories from 259 outlets, reporting on Inflation most often describes economic releases (302), rate decisions (233), public statements (96), price levels (46), military action (35), sanctions or trade (33).

It shows up alongside Interest Rates (743 — meetings or visits ×2), Federal Reserve (527), AI (524), Treasury (450), Oil (744 — meetings or visits ×2), CPI (331 — meetings or visits ×3), Central Bank (302), Iran (590).

Two steps out: Hormuz (through Oil, 744 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Oil, 744 shared stories on the weaker link); Saudi Arabia (through Oil, 744 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through Oil, 744 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 4, with coverage on 64 separate days — concentrated in Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?” held at 8% between Aug 12 and Sep 25.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 6:20 PM PT