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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

India

The world's most populous country — a nuclear power and fast-growing major economy.

Coverage of India is rising : 233 signals on the latest tracked day, up 168% from its three-week baseline of 87, across 11 domains (down from 65 a week ago). That makes it the #14 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

If India matters to your work, coverage is climbing off its baseline — worth a closer-than-usual look this week.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,953 tracked stories from 294 outlets, reporting on India most often describes meetings or visits (191), economic releases (182), public statements (129), military action (73), sanctions or trade (72), launches or releases (71).

It shows up alongside Delhi (681 — meetings or visits ×12), Modi (383 — meetings or visits ×19), GDP (363), China (779 — meetings or visits ×22, sanctions or trade ×4), Brics (353 — meetings or visits ×42), AI (499), Russia (486 — sanctions or trade ×16, meetings or visits ×8), Oil (450 — sanctions or trade ×14).

Two steps out: Iran (through China, 779 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through China, 779 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through China, 779 shared stories on the weaker link); South Korea (through China, 668 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 16, with coverage on 66 separate days — concentrated in India South Asia.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” held at 14% between Aug 14 and Sep 18.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:54 PM PT