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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Tariffs

Taxes a government charges on imported goods, used to protect domestic industry or as trade leverage.

Coverage of Tariffs is holding steady : 62 signals on the latest tracked day, up 63% from its three-week baseline of 38, across 12 domains (down from 46 a week ago). That makes it the #92 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Tariffs is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 38 signals a day across 12 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 48+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 12. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Geopolitics Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,376 tracked stories from 253 outlets, reporting on Tariffs most often describes sanctions or trade (280), public statements (71), meetings or visits (71), launches or releases (30), rate decisions (30), economic releases (15).

It shows up alongside China (496 — sanctions or trade ×26), AI (378 — sanctions or trade ×4), Trump (636 — sanctions or trade ×58, ceasefire or deal ×2), United States (428), Canadian (419 — sanctions or trade ×82), President Donald Trump (370), Iran (328 — sanctions or trade ×11), Oil (305 — sanctions or trade ×18).

Two steps out: Congress (through Trump, 636 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Trump, 636 shared stories on the weaker link); Russia (through Trump, 636 shared stories on the weaker link); White House (through Trump, 636 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Mar 25, with coverage on 65 separate days — concentrated in Auto.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?” fell 38 points between Aug 26 and Sep 26, from 56% to 18%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:52 PM PT