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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Nuclear

The technology of atomic energy, spanning civilian power generation and weapons programs.

Coverage of Nuclear is holding steady : 95 signals on the latest tracked day, up 239% from its three-week baseline of 28, across 16 domains (down from 58 a week ago). That makes it the #50 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Nuclear is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 28 signals a day across 16 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 35+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 16. That is the move that would push it up the Wire. It sits on our Energy Desk.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,724 tracked stories from 318 outlets, reporting on Nuclear most often describes public statements (127), meetings or visits (92), military action (85), launches or releases (40), sanctions or trade (27), elections (14).

It shows up alongside Nuclear Power (311), South Korea (269), United States (473), AI (443 — acquisition ×2), China (429), Iran (429 — meetings or visits ×4), Trump (412), Russia (338).

Two steps out: Canadian (through United States, 473 shared stories on the weaker link); Immigration (through United States, 473 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through United States, 473 shared stories on the weaker link); Oil (through United States, 473 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Jul 6, with coverage on 92 separate days — concentrated in South Korea.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Iran nuclear test before 2027?” fell 1 points between Aug 12 and Sep 25, from 5% to 4%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 4:53 PM PT