{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"us-midterms-2026","title":"The U.S. midterms 2026 record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":null,"bound":false,"basis":"unbound","statement":"We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 3 entities to \"U.S. midterms 2026\" (congress, republican, senate), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-midterms-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero.","candidatesConsidered":["congress","republican","senate"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["congress","republican","senate"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"not-enough-to-publish","publishStateNote":"Not enough to publish a subject-bound record. The event-level layers below (our coverage count and the crowd's question set for this event) are real and stated; the entity-derived layers are WITHHELD, not empty — we do not fill a gap with a neighbouring subject's evidence.","asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-25","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-25","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":1,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 125-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-25, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/us-midterms-2026 and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/us-midterms-2026 so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"null\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["midterms","election","midterm","balance","congressional","elections","control","congress","house","senate","majority"],"questionSet":["katherine","clark","first","speaker","tom","cotton","leader","virginia","map","used","lauren","boebert","admits","sex","staffer","republican","party","hold","fewer","seats","democratic"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","status":"absent","basis":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","documents":null,"outlets":null,"activeDays":null},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":23505,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":869},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":63},{"period":"2026","mentions":22573}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"unbound","rowsNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"U.S. midterms 2026","slug":"us-midterms-2026","questionCount":25,"questions":["Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?","Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?","New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?","Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?","Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"],"mentions":23505,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"This record cannot state a subject-bound reading, and we say so rather than assembling one. We cannot bind a subject to this record with confidence, so we publish that instead of guessing. The event registry attaches 3 entities to \"U.S. midterms 2026\" (congress, republican, senate), and none is named in the record's own subject line or listed as a canonical alias for \"us-midterms-2026\". Binding to one anyway is how a record about an election ends up serving a manufacturer's news, so the entity-derived layers are withheld and labelled unmeasured — never rendered blank, which would read as a measured zero. What stands is the event-level measurement: our own coverage count for \"U.S. midterms 2026\" and the 25 market questions the crowd prices under it. The entity-derived layers are withheld — an unmeasured layer and a measured zero must never look alike, so we label which one this is."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"unbound","note":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"unregistered","whatThisIs":"A subject on this platform's publication registry with no written definition yet. What follows is the shape of the record we keep on it, not a description of the thing itself.","whyTracked":"We hold 249 documents from 99 outlets over 7 active days. 25 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about us-midterms-2026.","99 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"This subject has no written definition and no derived one; the record says so rather than composing a sentence about a thing nobody has defined."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":5,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":7},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":1,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 5 carried by three or more separate publishers, 7 carried by one and labelled single-source. 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A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-katherine-clark-be-the-first-speaker-of-the-house-after-the-2026-midterms","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.4,"pricedAt":"2026-09-11","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-03","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-tom-cotton-be-the-next-senate-majority-leader","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-07-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/new-virginia-congressional-map-used-in-the-midterms","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.25,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-04","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/lauren-boebert-admits-to-sex-with-staffer-before-midterms","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":6,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-02","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-republican-party-hold-47-or-fewer-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":36.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":92.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-05","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to U.S. midterms 2026 has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","status":"measured","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"documents":249,"outlets":99,"activeDays":7,"key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-25","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"basisNote":"unmeasured — no subject is bound for this record, so nothing is attributed here. See subjectBinding. This is not a measured zero."},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":23505,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":869},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":63},{"period":"2026","mentions":22573}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about U.S. midterms 2026 in the current window: “CLARITY Act Fails 49-50 in US Senate as SEC & CFTC Move Ahead on Crypto Rules Within 48 Hours” (7 separate publishers, earliest Sep 20, 2026); “GOP senator calls for Donald Trump Jr., Hunter Biden subpoenas after Russian oligarch paid for first son’s wedding party” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 22, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the change ledger","text":"We could not look: no subject is bound to this record, so there is no ledger to read."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?” at 92.5% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"CLARITY Act Fails 49-50 in US Senate as SEC & CFTC Move Ahead on Crypto Rules Within 48 Hours","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"GOP senator calls for Donald Trump Jr., Hunter Biden subpoenas after Russian oligarch paid for first son’s wedding party","asOf":"2026-09-22"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Trump seeks ‘massive’ Belarus fertiliser deal amid Canada trade war","asOf":"2026-09-21"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — 92.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. 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