{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"russia-ukraine-war","title":"The Russia–Ukraine war record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/russia-ukraine-war so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"Putin Signs Russia's First Crypto Law: Trading Is Legal, Payments Stay Banned","url":"https://decrypt.co/375062/putin-signs-russia-first-crypto-trading-payments","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Exclusive | U.S. Intel Finds Putin Could Test NATO’s Resolve With Limited Incursion","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1vhta78/exclusive_us_intel_finds_putin_could_test_natos/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"US Intelligence Warns Putin Could Invade NATO While Still Fighting Ukraine","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vhw80w/us_intelligence_warns_putin_could_invade_nato/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":40,"outlets":24,"activeDays":11,"firstSeen":"2026-07-10","lastSeen":"2026-08-07","homeDomains":["intelligence"],"asserts":{"military-action":5,"regulatory-approval":2,"utterance":2,"sanction-trade":1,"meeting-visit":1,"price-threshold":1},"assertionCoverage":0.3,"movesWith":[{"label":"russia","n":35,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"ukraine","n":20,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"china","n":15,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"iran","n":12,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"trump","n":12,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"immigration","n":10,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"european union","n":8,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"nato","n":8,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-44,"reading":"Our coverage of Russia–Ukraine war is 44% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":63,"eventMentions":645,"periods":[{"period":"2027-06","mentions":30},{"period":"2027","mentions":112},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":164},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":58},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":58},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":78},{"period":"2026","mentions":145}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-zelenskyy-talk-to-putin-by-november-30-821","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":14,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-26","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Russia–Ukraine war","slug":"russia-ukraine-war","questionCount":32,"questions":["Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?","Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?","Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?"],"mentions":645,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-01"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-07-28T13:31:57.380620+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-21T15:22:17.837795+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"fading","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T13:31:57.380620+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T13:31:57.380620+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-07-31T22:09:33.198157+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-07-31T22:09:33.198157+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-31T22:09:33.198157+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-31T22:09:33.198157+00:00"}]}}}