{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"rate-decision-interest-rates","title":"The Rate decision: Interest Rates record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/rate-decision-interest-rates so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"US suffers unexpected job losses in July, markets dial back rate hike expectations - Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxNN1B4WTMtdXVhNDJJNjJ2Sjl5dm14MXI4M3FUc2dYUDN5blRtOTBXQVZqX0ZaUWNQTFpZMDdlU24tY1BLWHVORE03Y0p3ekNQM0RHQjZJWEhpckhfLXl1QWFlVlV2UU9OWFhkWDZZNXA1eHdFVmlkQVlVUWdaQWVKUl9NMC1QcW8zT09NRks4eGViOXpESU82MmpuaWYydkljM1Fv?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"‘Reasonably’ small chance of RBA rate hike: MFS IM - financialnewswire.com.au","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPdV9zSEhQN0xpVFdaekpIc2xhRjRFWnhubjVZLUpQMW9Nb3hTUks5X0JaRnB3S053VjBHbEJ1N3JRbTF3blc4cmFmZHN2UVhaVVotalhZYlpDN2xZT3FLQ2FJckw4Y0hXNDBqOGI3SWpVaGRQVHpkekJzakdaZ1NYYVdSVEktRmlDUUVPNzFBbmhjNTN3UlZv?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"'Don't bank on it': Three factors shaping next week's interest rates decision - SBS","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOUFZORFU4emRfUWxocjhSZk5MS3c1eUJfNDVwWjBHTldxRkRPWUNHdE9JNHkyTzhqd0YwLVpBWE1rTTc1TFJzTXRxZWY2aUV1SU1aTFhkRHZZZmZUc09VX2otUE5mN1FQeDVpcE1fV2NKX0pyWkhkemRmVDl2SmRNQlZ3aU9MX3psck5qV3ZnWDlpSURGT0VIOG15bncwRjU1TU1VSEhvVXRLY0ZFeEE?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"U.S. unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, putting Fed rate hikes in question","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/07/the-u-s-lost-23-000-jobs-in-july-far-shy-of-forecasts-for-a-gain-of-80-000","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Why RBI Is Looking Beyond Headline Inflation Before Changing Interest Rates, explains Rohit Kumar Singh - Prittle Prattle News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxQcmxka1NKSTFHYjBoSWdNbzhjMFlRYU9ncFNnY0pvM1I4Vkw2bUxQb3BSRnZxa2x6YTlOTXdBRGtGLTIybUNEY2draFFvQUF4UTduMEM2SkhzelFHTHZ5Wi01OHBWakNFMG9wWU1NZGhaMldkOG9sS1FCN19wZzJyWlpVOVZDWm5OOGVFMmxuTkF0NEhWRzBERUV5em9PZw?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":403,"outlets":66,"activeDays":31,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["macro_economics"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":121,"econ-release":10,"acquisition":7,"military-action":7,"price-threshold":6,"utterance":5},"assertionCoverage":0.409,"movesWith":[{"label":"federal reserve","n":93,"sharedDomains":["macro_economics"]},{"label":"inflation","n":111,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"ai","n":66,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"oil","n":65,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"iran","n":61,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"treasury","n":55,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"housing","n":54,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"trump","n":50,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-32,"reading":"Our coverage of Rate decision: Interest Rates is 32% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":82,"eventMentions":520,"periods":[{"period":"2026-11","mentions":10},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":35},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":185},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":290}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":82,"change24hPct":8,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-09","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":62,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-13","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":24,"change24hPct":-25.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-31","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Rate decision: Interest Rates","slug":"rate-decision-interest-rates","questionCount":30,"questions":["Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?","No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?","Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the October 2026 meeting?","No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?"],"mentions":520,"firstSeen":"2026-05-25","lastSeen":"2026-08-07"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-05T15:36:15.049741+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00"}]}}}