{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"rate-decision-federal-reserve","title":"The Rate decision: Federal Reserve record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/rate-decision-federal-reserve and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/rate-decision-federal-reserve so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"US job losses in July temper Federal Reserve rate hike expectations - ColoradoBiz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBCSWxxUm8xaUtsdkZWdnZCMTRmTVZjNkI4NG5mSlFvNTZMNXNPRkdqdGRXalB5YS1kQmllemw1azZHSXhObWx5akVwOVV2NXBDSkZ1U3hHQnVSbzdSendBLUZnb29td3BvNnRPOVhZcEFTVjB0VkhLMA?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady - thetriangle.org","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE5HbkNrY1VJRTBvbDJoM0RtWEticnVpVG5jYjVsd3Rjclo0MUl4V3ZtUGhiT1VxVEozSnlGUWFCd2RKcURXMXpSbGRYTHY5U0pucXZHc2xndFF5SVhUTVdyako5NjZjbFY3Z1pzcTNraWk1UnZ2OTN3cEdZdlRtQlE?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Donald Trump renews effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook - Al Jazeera","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxQR2lST2oyVjhTMHprd0JNbG5MYjdxNi00cHVIRW1LcHZLeDFWN0tzem5sMjV3MnNoY0E5eVhhVkdNMk0yOW5Jc2xNbkswRUhjU2hQbllmWThLX3J1RXFoYmJqUTZ2VjVrbUYweXIxcnd5NXgtUmpsNGFDQ0RjNUNQNk5melhxbjNxdmtmZEc5U05NeU8tNGFjT0sya3dZNDhrZk9ncV8yMWRqcmRLaGfSAbMBQVVfeXFMTVFZR3JwUHBOUlM4ZEhETkdZWnRZeGFYX3ZFUzZLOGM3cDh5c1FSX1h3eWZFbS1ObGRHNG1tdV9XdW9rc1FwbGtfX04yR3dkYzN4QnN5VDk5S3ZmQTRFdDRzY2hOTXg5MVpXTFpPWDl4R3pFMTBNRGNXT0hqcmhEbFRjNHIzNTR4LVpCTHJUOXl5S1otajMwWjg0dV9TLWNILTRzYnFmOUxqZVFWeVBiOWZIVmM?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"US payrolls fell 23,000 in July — the shock miss that just pulled the Fed dovish","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1vi1fdq/us_payrolls_fell_23000_in_july_the_shock_miss/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":226,"outlets":60,"activeDays":34,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["macro_economics","crypto_defi"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":39,"econ-release":19,"meeting-visit":6,"military-action":5,"utterance":5,"launch-release":3},"assertionCoverage":0.389,"movesWith":[{"label":"interest rates","n":93,"sharedDomains":["macro_economics"]},{"label":"treasury","n":46,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"kevin warsh","n":26,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi","macro_economics"]},{"label":"bitcoin","n":39,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"crypto","n":36,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"inflation","n":67,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"central bank","n":23,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"wall street","n":23,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-38,"reading":"Our coverage of Rate decision: Federal Reserve is 38% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":73,"eventMentions":40,"periods":[{"period":"2027-01","mentions":40}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Rate decision: Federal Reserve","slug":"rate-decision-federal-reserve","questionCount":5,"questions":["Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?"],"mentions":40,"firstSeen":"2026-07-30","lastSeen":"2026-07-30"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00"}]}}}