{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"israel-iran-conflict","title":"The Israel Iran Conflict record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/israel-iran-conflict and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/israel-iran-conflict so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as Hormuz Risks Mount","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ADNOC-Reports-15-Vessel-Attacks-as-Hormuz-Risks-Mount.html","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Iran aims to ban US and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll. Iran's parliament is reviewing a plan to ban ships linked to \"hostile countries\" from the Strait until Tehran is compensated for war damage. The plan would also impose fees of up to 7% on commercial vessels.","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1vi4nt2/iran_aims_to_ban_us_and_israeli_ships_from_strait/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Citi Raises Brent Forecast for 2026; Sees $150 Oil if Hormuz Disruption Persists - EnergyNow","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOb1NPMzB0SXNPOEc0bzFqZnVGMUJsRUl0T0F3RzFRRkI3Njlkc1VIakU3ZldfMl9FMjlFckJabkdZUlRyb2tDX0VuSmhVMXU5ZFNjMllGZmJZamRHMGN1TnRiQ3MyX3l6eWxHUC0yTU1naXNQeEJCeVBQRGxGYzNQbUZEQzU0aUdNSXNHVU04SEZURkVJR1llMGI3ajNtb2YxeDJGSjQxY3o4YkxR?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Proposed Hormuz Passage Deal Not Feasible for Shipping Industry, Sources Say","url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/08/07/880681.htm","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":569,"outlets":83,"activeDays":37,"firstSeen":"2026-04-12","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy","middle_east"],"asserts":{"utterance":96,"military-action":61,"meeting-visit":27,"sanction-trade":8,"acquisition":7,"ceasefire-deal":6},"assertionCoverage":0.388,"movesWith":[{"label":"iran","n":475,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":4,"ceasefire-deal":3,"sanction-trade":2}},{"label":"oman","n":209,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"label":"oil","n":297,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"label":"saudi arabia","n":169,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"label":"trump","n":252,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"israel","n":196,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"middle east","n":171,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"yemen","n":101,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":19,"reading":"Our coverage of Israel Iran Conflict is 19% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":89,"eventMentions":127,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":40},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":4},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":7},{"period":"2026","mentions":76}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":2,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-14","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":6,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-08-06","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":60,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-12","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":4,"change24hPct":-7,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-12","deadline":"2026-07-31","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Israel Iran Conflict","slug":"israel-iran-conflict","questionCount":0,"questions":[],"mentions":127,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","lastSeen":"2026-08-05"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-25T15:00:16.995106+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-05T15:36:15.049741+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"}]}}}