{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-israel","title":"The Election: Israel record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-israel and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/election-israel so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"Iran aims to ban US and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll. Iran's parliament is reviewing a plan to ban ships linked to \"hostile countries\" from the Strait until Tehran is compensated for war damage. The plan would also impose fees of up to 7% on commercial vessels.","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1vi4nt2/iran_aims_to_ban_us_and_israeli_ships_from_strait/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hamas has agreed to disarm. Israel should now agree to peace","url":"https://ecfr.eu/article/hamas-has-agreed-to-disarm-israel-should-now-agree-to-peace/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"The powerful pro-Israel lobby pulling the EU's strings","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/europeanunion/comments/1vib631/the_powerful_proisrael_lobby_pulling_the_eus/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"US-Iran War Live Updates: Netanyahu calls PM Modi to discuss India-Israel relations, Iran war","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1vh570z/usiran_war_live_updates_netanyahu_calls_pm_modi/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Israel fires top intelligence officials as Iran ramps up spy network","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vi88mo/israel_fires_top_intelligence_officials_as_iran/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":885,"outlets":108,"activeDays":48,"firstSeen":"2026-03-30","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["middle_east"],"asserts":{"utterance":149,"military-action":148,"ceasefire-deal":116,"meeting-visit":33,"election":17,"launch-release":12},"assertionCoverage":0.569,"movesWith":[{"label":"gaza","n":458,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":108,"meeting-visit":2}},{"label":"iran","n":344,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"label":"trump","n":293,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":13}},{"label":"hormuz","n":196,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"middle east","n":172,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"saudi arabia","n":134,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"lebanon","n":102,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"oman","n":91,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":11,"reading":"Our coverage of Election: Israel is 11% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":87,"eventMentions":372,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":10},{"period":"2026","mentions":362}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-enacts-military-exemption-for-yeshiva-students-by-sep-30","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":82,"change24hPct":74,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-14","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":93,"change24hPct":42.9,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-17","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":55,"change24hPct":14.1,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":1,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-08-01","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Israel","slug":"election-israel","questionCount":13,"questions":["Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?","Will José Israel González win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?","Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?"],"mentions":372,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-06"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-30T20:44:17.114289+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-26T15:01:06.614667+00:00"}]}}}