{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"economic-indicator-argentina-inflation","title":"The Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"inflation","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"inflation\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation\"). It was preferred over argentina because it carries this record's own action class (econ-release) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["argentina","inflation"],"alsoDefensible":["argentina"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"econ-release"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-09-11","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-11","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":15,"expectedCadenceDays":7,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 8 active day(s) over a 57-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is not reliably current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-11, 15 days ago, against its expected cadence of about one item every 7 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/economic-indicator-argentina-inflation and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/economic-indicator-argentina-inflation so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"inflation\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 4 attributable rows for \"inflation\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. 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Lead subject \"inflation\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation\"). It was preferred over argentina because it carries this record's own action class (econ-release) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-08T15:17:58.202118+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The rate at which prices rise across an economy; central banks steer it with interest rates.","whyTracked":"We hold 397 documents from 178 outlets over 8 active days. It runs through 10 coverage domains we watch, including Crypto DEFI, Europe Politics, India South Asia. 15 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-07-17","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Jul 17, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about inflation.","178 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":1,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":9,"singleSource":8},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"9 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 1 carried by three or more separate publishers, 8 carried by one and labelled single-source. 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A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-argentinas-annual-inflation-be-less-than-20","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.35,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-11","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be less than or equal to 0.9%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-argentinas-monthly-inflation-in-september-2026-be-less-than-or-equal-to-0pt9","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.4,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-13","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-argentinas-annual-inflation-in-2026-be-between-20-and-24pt9","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.45,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-11","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 8 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":397,"outlets":178,"activeDays":8,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-11","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-17","end":"2026-09-11","activeDays":8,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 8 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2157,"outlets":259,"activeDays":64,"since":"2026-04-04","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"econ-release":302,"rate-decision":233,"utterance":96,"price-threshold":46,"military-action":35,"sanction-trade":33},"assertionCoverage":0.399,"movesWith":[{"name":"interest rates","together":743,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"federal reserve","together":527,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":524,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"treasury","together":450,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"oil","together":744,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"cpi","together":331,"sharedDomains":["auto"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":3}},{"name":"central bank","together":302,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"iran","together":590}],"movesWithLabels":["interest rates","federal reserve","ai","treasury","oil","cpi","central bank","iran"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-64,"reading":"Our coverage of Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation is 64% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":133,"eventMentions":196,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":20},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":56},{"period":"2026","mentions":120}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":9,"text":"Independent sources agree on 9 things about Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation in the current window: “Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Argentina, US launch ‘Andes-Atlantic Corridor’ to boost infrastructure investment” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 25, 2026), and 7 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be less than or equal to 0.9%?” at 0.4% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 9 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"7 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Argentina, US launch ‘Andes-Atlantic Corridor’ to boost infrastructure investment","asOf":"2026-09-25"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Revolut wins Argentina Central Bank approval, plans 2027 launch","asOf":"2026-09-25"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be less than or equal to 0.9%? — 0.4% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":9,"text":"Independent sources agree on 9 things about Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation in the current window: “Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Argentina, US launch ‘Andes-Atlantic Corridor’ to boost infrastructure investment” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 25, 2026), and 7 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be less than or equal to 0.9%?” at 0.4% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 9 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Economic indicator: Argentina & Inflation, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-08T15:17:58.202118+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/economic-indicator-argentina-inflation","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"economic-indicator-argentina-inflation\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/economic-indicator-argentina-inflation and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Economic indicator: Ar"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"5 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". 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