{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry — WITH a first-party primary-source layer attached (layer 0 below names the issuing authorities and the exact documents this platform reads). Still standard, and here is the honest gap: no reporting-consensus ledger has been computed for this subject, and layer 0 is machine-fetched rather than backed by a hand-verified source-of-record audit like the full-tier records carry.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["alabama","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["alabama","hawaii","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-25","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-25","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":1,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-25, inside its daily cadence."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-09-26","failingSince":null},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN... (2026-09-26) — Tropical Depression Fay; max sustained winds 35 mph; min central pressure 1009 mb; movement WSW at 3 mph; center 29.7, -43.7","observedAsOf":"2026-09-26","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"6d1e-65c5f6b5a47b7\"","lastModified":"Sat, 26 Sep 2026 09:25:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:45fb8a6a61cd9afea12a09c356da2dca2406147e58c7baea1a0a71535554b7f5","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...","observedDate":"2026-09-26","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD... (2026-09-26) — Hurricane Odalys; max sustained winds 115 mph; min central pressure 951 mb; movement N at 5 mph; center 19.1, -123.7","observedAsOf":"2026-09-26","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"8e15-65c5f6b5a47be\"","lastModified":"Sat, 26 Sep 2026 09:25:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:b282ad2b04bed81c23e2440e21d21eabbba91cd5151b35a686d46f0dbcd15ffb","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...","observedDate":"2026-09-26","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-09-25) — Tropical Storm Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI; Tropical Storm Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI; Hurricane Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI","observedAsOf":"2026-09-25","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"W/\"c70c094d599451a74fb204ba98418bf3:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:7c4057b19c3f33f410f2dded9a92bf0f446f576cb49a2508342e9a00e497a1fa","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-09-25","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hurricane\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 8 attributable rows for \"hurricane\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Disaster: Hurricane\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":8,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":8,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster"],"questionSet":["landfall","hawaii","category","texas","november","louisiana","mississippi","alabama"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1191,"outlets":407,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-25","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":842,"outlets":97,"activeDays":35,"since":"2026-01-26","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":477,"utterance":12,"launch-release":8,"meeting-visit":6,"military-action":5,"sports-outcome":5},"assertionCoverage":0.625,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":292,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":152,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":124,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"miami","together":115,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":93,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"hurricane lowell","together":59,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"noaa","together":77,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"iceland","together":113}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","national hurricane center","atlantic hurricane season","miami","hawaii","hurricane lowell","noaa","iceland"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":927,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":13},{"period":"2026-11","mentions":180},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":13},{"period":"2026","mentions":721}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260904095717296","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":96,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","questionCount":27,"questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?"],"mentions":927,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: layer 0 carries 3 first-party issuers read from their own feeds, each stating the date it speaks for; the reporting-consensus ledger is what this record still lacks against a full-tier one."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.","whyTracked":"We hold 1191 documents from 407 outlets over 9 active days. It runs through 8 coverage domains we watch, including Weather Climate, World Wires, Water. 27 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hurricane.","407 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":2,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":10},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":6,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 2 carried by three or more separate publishers, 10 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"9d656cde7d07","clusterKey":"9d656cde7d07","claim":"Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii","claimUrl":"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/a-category-5-hurricane-could-be-raging-off-mexicos-pacific-coast-this-week/","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":12,"origins":["AP","aljazeera.com","businessinsurance.com","cbsnews.com","bbc.co.uk","earthsky.org","euronews.com","foxweather.com","news.google.com","time.com","The Watchers","yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"3aca6f93dc3d","clusterKey":"3aca6f93dc3d","claim":"Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season","claimUrl":"https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/national-hurricane-center-tropical-storm-fay-forms-northern-136597422","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":6,"origins":["AP","Newswise (press release)","abcnews.com","foxweather.com","news.google.com","nhc.noaa.gov","yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"0c77502af645","clusterKey":"0c77502af645","claim":"New Era signs 20-year gas PPA with Vistra subsidiary to power 250MW data center in Ector County, Texas","claimUrl":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/new-era-signs-20-year-gas-ppa-with-vistra-subsidiary-to-power-250mw-data-center-in-ector-county-texas/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["datacenterdynamics.com","energymonitor.ai"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"5d1039e39551","clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","claimUrl":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["bbc.co.uk","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"e37787d59869","clusterKey":"e37787d59869","claim":"Google-backed battery storage pilot in Texas demonstrates how BESS can improve hourly carbon-free matching for data centers","claimUrl":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-backed-battery-storage-pilot-in-texas-demonstrates-how-bess-can-improve-hourly-carbon-free-matching-for-data-centers/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["datacenterdynamics.com","energy-storage.news"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"d0c1307e2319","clusterKey":"d0c1307e2319","claim":"Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifies to Category 4 status in active Pacific, fueling Southwest flood threat","claimUrl":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/polo-odalys-pacific-tropics-southwest-flood","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["foxweather.com","news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"40879fbbd96b","clusterKey":"40879fbbd96b","claim":"A repeat of Miami’s 1926 hurricane could cost over $280 billion. That’s more than Hurricane Katrina","claimUrl":"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/a-repeat-of-miamis-1926-hurricane-could-cost-over-280-billion-thats-more-than-hurricane-katrina/","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"c3e724dcc278","clusterKey":"c3e724dcc278","claim":"Hurricane Odalys Graphics","claimUrl":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/121313.shtml?cone","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["nhc.noaa.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"d6d7dbd8b62e","clusterKey":"d6d7dbd8b62e","claim":"Green notification for tropical cyclone GONZALO-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (0.419 million in Tropical Storm).","claimUrl":"https://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=1001323","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["gdacs.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"de26cafdcc34","clusterKey":"de26cafdcc34","claim":"S. Korea picks Texas power plant as 1st U.S. investment project: sources","claimUrl":"https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260922004400315","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["en.yna.co.kr"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"f0d7992c2114","clusterKey":"f0d7992c2114","claim":"Flood Watch issued September 22 at 2:48PM HST until September 26 at 6:00PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI","claimUrl":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.59599f54f3e9e47644ed14ad1fd6294e24114766.001.1.cap","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. 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A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN... (2026-09-26) — Tropical Depression Fay; max sustained winds 35 mph; min central pressure 1009 mb; movement WSW at 3 mph; center 29.7, -43.7","observedAsOf":"2026-09-26","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"6d1e-65c5f6b5a47b7\"","lastModified":"Sat, 26 Sep 2026 09:25:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:45fb8a6a61cd9afea12a09c356da2dca2406147e58c7baea1a0a71535554b7f5","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...","observedDate":"2026-09-26","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD... (2026-09-26) — Hurricane Odalys; max sustained winds 115 mph; min central pressure 951 mb; movement N at 5 mph; center 19.1, -123.7","observedAsOf":"2026-09-26","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"8e15-65c5f6b5a47be\"","lastModified":"Sat, 26 Sep 2026 09:25:52 GMT","signature":"sha256:b282ad2b04bed81c23e2440e21d21eabbba91cd5151b35a686d46f0dbcd15ffb","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...","observedDate":"2026-09-26","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-09-26","observed":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-09-25) — Tropical Storm Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI; Tropical Storm Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI; Hurricane Watch issued September 25 at 10:56PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI","observedAsOf":"2026-09-25","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastChange":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"W/\"c70c094d599451a74fb204ba98418bf3:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ:dtagent10337260504112723F6xZ\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:7c4057b19c3f33f410f2dded9a92bf0f446f576cb49a2508342e9a00e497a1fa","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","lastReadRef":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"38 active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-09-25","observedReadAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":1,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-hurricane","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":1,"served":7,"live":7,"expired":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"7 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":13.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.9,"pricedAt":"2026-09-04","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-texas-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":11.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-louisiana-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":14,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-mississippi-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-alabama-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260904095717296","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":96,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact","venueStatus":null,"origin":"entity-capture"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1191,"outlets":407,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-25","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":842,"outlets":97,"activeDays":35,"since":"2026-01-26","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":477,"utterance":12,"launch-release":8,"meeting-visit":6,"military-action":5,"sports-outcome":5},"assertionCoverage":0.625,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":292,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":152,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":124,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"miami","together":115,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":93,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"hurricane lowell","together":59,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"noaa","together":77,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"iceland","together":113}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","national hurricane center","atlantic hurricane season","miami","hawaii","hurricane lowell","noaa","iceland"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":927,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":13},{"period":"2026-11","mentions":180},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":13},{"period":"2026","mentions":721}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN..., dated 2026-09-26; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD..., dated 2026-09-26; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports 38 active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-09-25. Read from the issuer Sep 26, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Disaster: Hurricane in the current window: “Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 21, 2026); “Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season” (6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?” at 13.5% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 90-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products — ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...","asOf":"2026-09-26","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products — ...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD...","asOf":"2026-09-26","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings — 38 active tropical-cyclone alerts","asOf":"2026-09-25","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-09-26T09:29:42+00:00"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii","asOf":"2026-09-21"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"New Era signs 20-year gas PPA with Vistra subsidiary to power 250MW data center in Ector County, Texas","asOf":"2026-09-22"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? — 13.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports ...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN..., dated 2026-09-26; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...ODALYS BEGINS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD..., dated 2026-09-26; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports 38 active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-09-25. Read from the issuer Sep 26, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Disaster: Hurricane in the current window: “Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 21, 2026); “Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season” (6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?” at 13.5% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 90-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"none-held"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"disaster-event-hurricane\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane ha"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. 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Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-1711dbab","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-19","previousTier":"full","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Hurricane","aliases":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","florida","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-hurricane","entityKeys":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","florida","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). 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