{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"What earthquake sensors can tell us about hurricanes","url":"https://www.preventionweb.net/news/what-earthquake-sensors-can-tell-us-about-hurricanes","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Super El Niño 2026 is reshaping hurricane season. Here's what NOAA forecasts - The Economic Times","url":"https://news.google.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?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"NOAA lowers 2026 Hurricane season forecast as strong El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity - WEAR-TV","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPbmNtTWRnUENZVXRPRnBGZC1lcWhNY0kzckdraHRzcXgyREVWN2hmaW41VkROZWdtZEI2WEdRQnUxQzBBSXR0dDRzUUxyZFJfM05JZThFMlg3ckpGdXBXZDl2TTUyekxXTVcwZndXWnpOWGR4UTJ1bk91dDF3a2J5V1lnUXhGNWhsRGl2Nk12Y3lGNDhFdHlFc0pibFlFWndJb2l0R0FDcVBYYlhSNlJseW5Dc2NENWZqa29tQWp4SWtPVzBRQnc?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"NOAA Trims 2026 Hurricane Outlook as El Niño Strengthens - stthomassource.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxOUGJXbDZZby1jVEZvbDNRQlZIdTFIWXlILW1ZMmZFbU9fckFFQmJnaWxzczVkYldhYXJudXdHc3ZoYjNCRVNUNTlfMWVkcnFJX3JldU9zbkhjZHRqUENCemZzcEl5cDdfcjNMZk5zNjZ4TjFScGF4OGYweTktZUprRlZMNmI5U01XVjhkYVFocFROQU9LckR1Mjh1THFRMTlzWl9XWG53?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"El Niño is reshaping hurricane season as NOAA lowers its Atlantic storm outlook - News-Times","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOc1I4MlNnSjE2eXhSNW5LSi1OZ3l5bS1qcWNIR29leUJHRmdaemtvVUVLSUFlZzhUSnowVlVQc0NWdlNxRnVsdFBnczU4WjdmZ0hGNlJIeHAtQzBGUi1zNjNodWN0RW9QVFFKOVZQbmdtZ0cyZ2huYmNLY29oX0RkLXoyR19hM0MyX2JqVkZoU09VV1Y2UEZtQmxVZGhOeUg4UWVr?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":195,"outlets":28,"activeDays":13,"firstSeen":"2026-07-10","lastSeen":"2026-08-07","homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":109,"launch-release":9,"utterance":5,"meeting-visit":3,"military-action":2,"regulatory-approval":2},"assertionCoverage":0.682,"movesWith":[{"label":"climate","n":21,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"wildfire","n":13,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"ai","n":10,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"united states","n":9,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"japan","n":8,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":89,"reading":"Our coverage of Disaster: Hurricane is 89% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":66,"eventMentions":294,"periods":[{"period":"2026","mentions":294}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will there be 7+ hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260723192532700","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":10,"change24hPct":-46.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-25","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","questionCount":11,"questions":["Will a hurricane form by May 31?","Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?","Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?"],"mentions":294,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-07-31"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-07-31T15:36:13.127750+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-31T15:36:13.127750+00:00"}]}}}