{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-earthquake","title":"The Disaster: Earthquake record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"El-Sayed's victory sends tremors through Democratic Party","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp309ng0xq1o?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"What Kumamoto revealed about Japan’s earthquake readiness","url":"https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/08/07/japan/society/kumamoto-earthquake-recovery-japan/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Rebuilt Malatya bazaar revives commerce after 2023 earthquakes","url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/turkiye/rebuilt-malatya-bazaar-revives-commerce-after-2023-earthquakes/news","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":786,"outlets":46,"activeDays":112,"firstSeen":"2026-04-06","lastSeen":"2026-08-07","homeDomains":["geophysical"],"asserts":{"disaster":700,"military-action":4,"sports-outcome":2,"launch-release":2,"regulatory-approval":1,"acquisition":1},"assertionCoverage":0.906,"movesWith":[{"label":"philippines","n":87,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"label":"indonesia","n":52,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"label":"japan","n":77,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"taiwan","n":23,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"label":"chile","n":21,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"label":"russia","n":36,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"peru","n":16,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"label":"china","n":27,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-54,"reading":"Our coverage of Disaster: Earthquake is 54% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":51,"eventMentions":356,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":87},{"period":"2026","mentions":269}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-california-experience-a-7pt0-or-above-magnitude-earthquake-in-2026-20260723232901145","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":2,"change24hPct":-32.9,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-25","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Earthquake","slug":"disaster-event-earthquake","questionCount":15,"questions":["9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?","Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?"],"mentions":356,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-07"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-25T15:00:16.995106+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00"}]}}}