{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"bitcoin-price-level","title":"The Bitcoin price levels record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/bitcoin-price-level and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/bitcoin-price-level so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"Bitcoin ETF inflows surge after Coldcard hack, but link is unclear: Bloomberg analyst","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-coldcard-hack-bloomberg-analyst?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"OKX's Rafique doubts Clarity Act will pass, warns optimism is already priced into bitcoin","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/04/okx-s-rafique-doubts-clarity-act-will-pass-warns-optimism-is-already-priced-into-bitcoin","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Why Bitcoin's BIP-110 refuses to die despite near-zero miner support","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/06/why-bitcoin-s-bip-110-refuses-to-die-despite-near-zero-miner-support","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":462,"outlets":82,"activeDays":54,"firstSeen":"2026-04-05","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["crypto_defi","prediction_markets"],"asserts":{"utterance":83,"military-action":21,"price-threshold":16,"acquisition":9,"rate-decision":8,"sanction-trade":5},"assertionCoverage":0.355,"movesWith":[{"label":"crypto","n":260,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"ethereum","n":97,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"treasury","n":70,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":2}},{"label":"ai","n":106,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"federal reserve","n":39,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"clarity act","n":36,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"gold","n":35,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"wall street","n":35,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-14,"reading":"Our coverage of Bitcoin price levels is 14% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":89,"eventMentions":4192,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":29},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":4134},{"period":"2026","mentions":29}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-july-13-19-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":0,"change24hPct":-49.8,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-14","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 9?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-august-9-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":97,"change24hPct":46.6,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-03","deadline":"2026-08-09","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 21?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-july-21-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":100,"change24hPct":49.8,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-15","deadline":"2026-07-21","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"},{"question":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 7?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-august-7-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":98,"change24hPct":47.8,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-08-01","deadline":"2026-08-07","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Bitcoin price levels","slug":"bitcoin-price-level","questionCount":14,"questions":["Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?","Bitcoin above 65,000 on July 31, 8PM ET?","Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?"],"mentions":4192,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-08"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-08T15:01:41.302777+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"}]}}}