{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"hormuz","title":"The Hormuz record","tier":"full","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hormuz","bound":true,"basis":"full-tier-hand-carved","statement":"Full-tier record: the subject was chosen by hand and its first-party issuers hand-verified — not derived from the event registry. Every layer below is this subject's own; nothing is borrowed.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz"]},"publishState":"published","asOf":"2026-11-10","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-11-10","basis":{"asOf":"2026-11-10","newestObservationAt":"2026-11-10","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","state":"unreadable-since 2026-11-03","lastReadAt":"2026-11-03"}],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"Sources run through 2026-11-10; 1 of its registered primary sources could not be read (Corroboration & context); 2 parts run behind: the market sensor (through 2026-10-02, 39 days behind) and the issuing-authority documents (through 2026-11-07, 3 days behind).","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-11-07","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NAVAREA IX navigational warnings)","computedAt":"2026-11-10","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":3,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-11-07 (computed 2026-11-10), 3 days before this record's 2026-11-10 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-02","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-11-10","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":39,"note":"3 of 7 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt; 1 of 7 open question(s) carry a venue status that does not confirm a live market; they are shown with their own dates and never make this layer current","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-02, 39 days before this record's 2026-11-10 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-11-10"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-11-10T19:50:13.877630Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"curatedReporting":{"key":"curatedReporting","label":"curated reporting rows","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the newest dated reporting row the tracked-entity snapshot carries","computedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"consensusLedger":{"key":"consensusLedger","label":"reporting-consensus ledger","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the last day of the corpus the ledger was computed over, as its own corpus statement gives it (web/signal-bureau/lib/claims_hormuz.json)","computedAt":"2026-11-10T15:39:47+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","tracked":true,"trackedNote":null,"access":"Free — a public exhibit record: no key, no charge. The same object renders at https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/, serves at GET /api/record/hormuz (earlier address /api/truth/hormuz, still answers), and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool.","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/ so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"degraded","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-03","verificationNote":"Fetch outage on 1 source(s) — corroboration: unreachable for 7 consecutive fetch attempts (last successful fetch 2026-11-03). The verification stamp has not advanced since the outage began; observed readings from the affected source(s) are older still and are marked stale on their rows.","freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":2,"sourcesFailing":1,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-11-10","failingSince":"2026-11-03"},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"degraded","statement":"The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for.","lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-10","observed":"Update 106 (18 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-18","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-19T09:47:36+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"6daa5c2737e34f4ebbf24239a9172826","lastModified":"Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:46:43 GMT","signature":"sha256:74e01bb311e7fc7481aa1a9ef4f04b6fff2f33ebc175c53ea5b3362a22562a1f","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. Safe to widen: discovery only NOMINATES; the row's own extractor must pull a real advisory reading before anything repoints (a wrong guess leaves the row unreadable, never wrongly read). If discovery finds the shelf and the reader still extracts nothing, the next fix class is the extractor's own filename pattern, with the found page as evidence. Sequence probe added 2026-09-05 (#506): the 2026-09-04 crawl's verdict named a productPattern fix, but the seven documents it saw are the shelf's footer charts/booklet/flyer, and the advisory list itself is rendered client-side, so no pattern can match a link the server never sends. The artifacts are served at a predictable media path, so discovery.sequence now walks the advisory number forward directly (every run, not only on failure); this crawl config stays as the fallback when the row's links fail.","sequence":{"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","start":82,"startDate":"2026-08-09","maxProbes":60,"maxGap":2,"note":"The newest advisory known when this was authored (2026-09-05): update-082, dated 09 August, at the path the template renders (search-indexed, not fetched by the authoring session). The walk probes {n}+1.. for each date from the cursor's date forward, accepts only a PDF body, refuses everything if a canary number (n+1000) resolves, and resumes from probeLog.probedThrough. maxGap 2 tolerates two numbers in the series belonging to other JMIC products; maxProbes 60 lets the first catch-up cover the weeks the row spent dead in about two runs. If tomorrow's probeLog shows the sample URLs 404ing, the convention or host moved (the footer PDFs live on sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/...), so change this template, not the crawl."}},"discoveryLog":{"found":false,"reachable":true,"pagesVisited":36,"visited":["https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products","https://www.ukmto.org/indian-ocean","https://www.ukmto.org/","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/weekly-reports","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/mievom-notes","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/industry","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/imo","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/initial-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/daily-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/final-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/incident-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/after-action-report","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/infonotes","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/weekly-dashboard","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-monthly-statistics","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/favicon.ico","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/94a11e200e1cebc1.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/b44f3e0dc3fff5a8.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/82fff4ee3068a208.css","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/footer-ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/about-us","https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents","https://www.ukmto.org/best-management-practices","https://www.ukmto.org/contact-us","https://www.ukmto.org/terms-and-conditions","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-main.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-border.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-text.svg","http://www.ukmto.org"],"pageBudget":40,"maxDepth":3,"candidatesProbed":9,"spilloverPages":15,"documentLinksSeen":7,"scriptedPages":27,"documentLinkSample":["https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/cmf/irta_mar-24.pdf?rev=f68a15866ace44c7ab3859b0b54ceb22","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/charts/q6099_low-res_ed11_2025.pdf?rev=8cbe027613764370a3fec7976a7abe19&amp;hash=C121A5BEFDE188DE15FD9AF3B54ACDA8","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/bmp/bmp-ms_hi-res_s.pdf?rev=2c338d856b0b4c169364b96766b12b27&amp;hash=8A19D49513D46613C44C7B51FC16F8D1","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-flyer-aug-2025.pdf?rev=e496e07a3da342b8bb89f268f21ad9a9","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-bridge-emergency-reference-cards---middle-east---digital---rev20dec2024.pdf?rev=c496f5a149b9480ab4cc13d8a1da4c06"],"note":"No page links or lists artifacts matching the product pattern, but the crawl DID see 7 document link(s) that do not match it (documentLinkSample). The issuer has likely renamed its files, so the fix is a productPattern change on the row's discovery config, not a URL swap and not a wider crawl.","at":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"Update 106","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"probeLog":{"found":false,"probes":13,"canary":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-1106-jmic-advisory-note-10-november.pdf","probeBudget":60,"maxGap":2,"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","highest":106,"highestDate":"2026-10-18","cursorUrl":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","advancedCount":0,"advanced":[],"candidates":[107,108,109],"exhausted":false,"sample":["https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-107-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-108-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-109-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf"],"probedFrom":"2026-11-07","today":"2026-11-10","probedThrough":"2026-11-07","note":"No newer artifact than 106 (2026-10-18) answers this template for any date through 2026-11-10 (13 probe(s), sample in `sample`). If the issuer has published since, its naming changed, so the fix is the template, not a wider walk.","at":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00"},"observedRef":"Update 106","observedDate":"18 october","observedReadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":23,"observedArtifact":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"navarea-ix","name":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings","issuer":"National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer)","tier":"primary","cadence":"daily","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-10","observed":"434/26 (7 Nov 2026) — BATHYMETRIC SURVEY NAVAREA IX 070300 UTC NOV 26","observedAsOf":"2026-11-07","links":[{"label":"issuer index","url":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/navarea-ix-warnings/"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:8183fd4bfe0161ca7c0e8be7dae4eb554c0c65d2217957a19c04ee98e0144a3a","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"observedRef":"434/26","observedDate":"7 Nov 2026","observedReadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","discovery":{"root":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/","productPattern":"navarea[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*","textPattern":"\\b(\\d{1,4})\\s*/\\s*\\d{2}\\b","note":"NAVAREA IX warnings are printed as rows, not files, so discovery falls back to counting warning references in the page text. The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"434/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":3,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-03","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.","observedAsOf":"2024-05-08","links":[{"label":"NGA MSI broadcast warnings (JSON API)","url":"https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/broadcast-warn?status=active&output=json"}],"note":"Full source records (methods, samples, and the dead-ends we ruled out) publish as each fetcher ships.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","lastChange":null,"consecutiveFailures":7,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":"HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable","etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:ef93699cf872ec61f29f74575b522e6f477ea9d93d029794cf16a3f30fc4640f","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-11T09:47:09+00:00"},"scopeNote":"NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":7,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedContentAgeDays":909,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-11-03, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 909 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","observedStale":true,"observedNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable.","readState":"unreadable-on-last-run","readStateNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable."}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set, not first-party operational data; verify at the source. Filtered for subject membership by the platform's one gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership); only the rows it cleared are served.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 8 attributable rows sampled for \"hormuz\", 3 served, 5 withheld (5 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":8,"served":3,"withheldNotEventRelevant":5,"withheldOffSubject":5,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","items":[{"title":"LNG Traffic Through Hormuz Hits Highest Level Since Iran War Began","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/LNG-Traffic-Through-Hormuz-Hits-Highest-Level-Since-Iran-War-Began.html","date":"2026-11-10","source":"Oil Price","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Iraq Strikes U.S. Deal to Boost Oil Exports Through Hormuz","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Strikes-US-Deal-to-Boost-Oil-Exports-Through-Hormuz.html","date":"2026-11-09","source":"Oilprice.com","eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"U.S. Military Coordinates With Saudi Oil Tankers on Risky Hormuz Crossings","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Military-Coordinates-With-Saudi-Oil-Tankers-on-Risky-Hormuz-Crossings.html","date":null,"source":null,"eventTerms":["hormuz"],"relevance":"membership:subject-named","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1154,"outlets":219,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-26","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-11-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-26","end":"2026-11-10","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5975,"outlets":328,"activeDays":96,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.098,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":4889,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":20,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":4080,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2538,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":2267,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"israel","together":2084,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1801,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1276,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":2715,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","israel","yemen","oil prices","trump"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":26,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 26% above its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":180,"verticalCount":32,"signalCount":205,"verticals":["african-economy","ai-advancements-general","anti-corruption","australia-economy","aviation","central-bank-digital-currency","chinese-overcapacity","critical-minerals","defense-procurement","defense-tech-startups","energy","europe-politics","fda-regulatory-decisions","grid-modernization","india-south-asia","insurance","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime"]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":28,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2026-12-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":33.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":8.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"latent","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":28.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2.75,"pricedAt":"2026-11-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2027-01-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-30","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2027-01-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-in-august-20260702155718116","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-02-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-november-6","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-11-07","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-06","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year, earlier than the venue's own end date (2026-11-07)","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":32,"mentions":8011,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-09","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null,"note":"\"Strait of Hormuz\" maintained since 2026-05-24; last priced 2026-11-09."}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — assembled from the layers above at build time; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-11-10","text":"We keep the layers apart and do not collapse them. Our attention on Hormuz stands 26% above its baseline and is rising. That measures our coverage, not the subject. The reporting layer is attributed outside coverage, and the consensus ledger speaks as of 2026-11-11 (producer last ran 2026-11-11). Each claim carries its date, and a dated layer is never read as today's news. The market layer prices 7 questions still open by their own deadline, beside 1 past its deadline and held as historical capture. A price is collective belief about defined outcomes, never proof. A system that read any single layer alone could answer wrongly in either direction; the maintained record keeps every layer in view. This is our judgment over the layers above, labeled as such."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement after syndication collapse; measures reporting agreement, never reality","schema":"sb.claims.v1","computedAt":"2026-11-11T01:01:37+00:00","checkedAt":"2026-11-11T01:01:37+00:00","method":"retroactive. Semantic-dome membership: 12616 kernel claim(s) and 2877 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright. Anchor diagnostic: 1534 member claim(s)/frame(s) carry no anchor term — admitted by the relation graph (e.g. party + in-profile action). The anchor-term gate is diagnostic-only and excludes nothing.","pending":false,"pendingNote":null,"suppression":null,"corpus":"5950 articles archived by our sweeps between 2026-08-25 and 2026-11-10 — secondary press; this news ledger does not read primary feeds, which the record reads separately in its primary-source layer (UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes, NAVAREA IX navigational warnings) with their own dates","limits":["Consensus measures reporting agreement, not reality — a uniformly repeated error passes any count.","Chains are collapsed by syndication tracing; residual shared-upstream risk remains.","Retroactive: computed 2026-11-11 over the archive, not tracked live.","Receipt gate: 83 extracted claim(s) excluded — no receipt whose own text supports the claim (the extractor's row binding is verified mechanically, never trusted).","Relative-anchor supersession: 3 claim(s) that described themselves as the most recent/last-known fact were retired because a claim from the SAME reporting thread, naming the same participants and the same measured quantity, describes a later instance of that subject — see 'retired'. Subject-matched, same-chain detection only: an anchor claim updated by a DIFFERENT outlet is not auto-retired, though its own firstSeen/lastSeen still render so a reader can judge its age.","Relative-anchor supersession: 35636 later same-thread claim(s) were NOT treated as replacing an anchored claim: 27387 are about different participants, a different measured quantity or a forecast, 8248 could not be read role for role or period for period, 1 compare against another time, 0 characterize or restate the same value and 0 report an earlier or the same period. A claim is replaced here only by a later report on the same participants and the same measured quantity, for a later period; every other pair keeps both claims standing.","Questions: 21 extracted sentence(s) were questions (a headline asking, e.g. \"Trump said on Truth Social: 'Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change th\"), not assertions, and take no claim standing in any tier.","Literal-span counting (#1036): 644 extracted claim(s) were receipted by sentences that do not all assert the same proposition, and were split into 1499 separate claims, each counted only on the sources whose own sentence asserts it. Every count, disagreement and replacement here is decided on the sources' own words; the extractor's sentence is kept as a labelled paraphrase and decides nothing.","Domain-competence gate: 3102 kernel claim(s) and 422 frame(s) excluded — every supporting chain came from outlets confidently placed outside this subject's coverage domains (aerospace_defense, auto, energy, europe_politics, india_south_asia, iran_regime, …). An outlet counts as competent when its measured home beat intersects the domains the subject's own corpus lives in; outlets with too few observations are never branded and always count.","Semantic-dome membership: 12616 kernel claim(s) and 2877 frame(s) were source-faithful but failed typed-signature membership and are excluded — a claim enters this ledger only if its signature names a family entity (party, place, or authority) AND either its action class sits in the family's geopolitical profile or it names a family place outright.","An item is published only when it is RECEIPTED: the outlet's own source link AND the source's exact words (verbatim: a literal span of the stored document, offsets into it, content-addressed by docId). The claim text is the extracted proposition and is never a quote. Anything else is UNRECEIPTED: retained, counted here by reason, never shown; every published count is computed from receipted items only.","Disagreement pairing: 20 candidate pair(s) with overlapping words and different numbers were NOT shown as disagreements: 3 report separate incidents or readings (another named date or time, another vessel, or reported on another day), 13 assert different propositions (another party or quantity) and 4 could not be matched role for role. Two reports disagree here only when they give different values for the same actor, counterparty, quantity and incident: the same named date, or the same report day when no date is named.","Event grouping (event@2): 4105 claim(s) are source sentences; 421 were grouped into 180 multi-sentence event(s) and 2360 matched no other claim, giving 2540 event(s). 1324 claim(s) could not be matched (untyped action class, no participant read, or no report day), so their count stays per sentence: could not match is not single source. The rule is mechanical and conservative (same typed action, shared participants and wording, no different named person or market, first seen within 1 day, no conflicting date, time, vessel, means (mine, missile, drone, boarding, gunfire) or value, every member matched to one anchor), so it under-groups: it measures reporting agreement about one incident, not verification."],"kernelClaims":[{"claim":"Only a \"negotiated solution\" can end the conflict between the US and Iran, Tehran's foreign minister has said, after President Donald Trump publicly rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"Only a \"negotiated solution\" can end the conflict between the US and Iran, Tehran's foreign minister has said, after President Donald Trump publicly rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.","start":219,"end":419,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:8a91d200e696c8f9ff27a5a141b545dc","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmvgyyw2jeego?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss"},"paraphrase":"US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.","paraphraseBy":"model","kernelType":"what","kernelTypeBy":"model","kernelTypeVerified":true,"kernelTypeCheck":"consistent: reads an action (utterance)","independentChains":3,"status":"corroborated","receipts":["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmvgyyw2jeego?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/recap-iran-says-war-us-not-over","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/27/better-deal-whats-behind-trumps-rejection-of-irans-truce-offer?traffic_source=rss"],"disputedWith":null,"firstSeen":"2026-09-27","lastSeen":"2026-09-27","hasRelativeAnchor":false,"evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":4,"originCount":3,"repetition":null,"sourceDomains":{"onDomain":["Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera","BBC News — Middle East","Middle East Eye"],"offDomain":[],"unknown":[],"label":"3 of 3 source(s) cover this subject's beat (13 domains)","allOffDomain":false},"eventKey":"ev1:b5a9cc98b3588e53","eventSize":4,"eventOriginCount":5,"eventStatus":"corroborated","eventOutletCount":5,"eventRepetition":null,"eventMatch":"matched","eventMatchReason":null,"chainsFolded":3},{"claim":"Earlier on Saturday, President Donald Trump rejected a truce deal proposed by Iran that Tehran said could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within a week.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"Earlier on Saturday, President Donald Trump rejected a truce deal proposed by Iran that Tehran said could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within a week.","start":392,"end":559,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:2d594ac5c40abeacccaf805d4a3fa703","url":"https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Sep/27/oman-calls-for-self-restraint-dialog-in-mideast-conflict"},"paraphrase":"Iran said the proposed truce deal could have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within a week.","paraphraseBy":"model","kernelType":"what","kernelTypeBy":"model","kernelTypeVerified":true,"kernelTypeCheck":"consistent: reads an action (utterance)","independentChains":1,"status":"single-source","receipts":["https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Sep/27/oman-calls-for-self-restraint-dialog-in-mideast-conflict"],"disputedWith":null,"firstSeen":"2026-09-27","lastSeen":"2026-09-27","hasRelativeAnchor":false,"evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"originCount":1,"repetition":null,"sourceDomains":{"onDomain":["newindianexpress"],"offDomain":[],"unknown":[],"label":"1 of 1 source(s) cover this subject's beat (13 domains)","allOffDomain":false},"eventKey":"ev1:b5a9cc98b3588e53","eventSize":4,"eventOriginCount":5,"eventStatus":"corroborated","eventOutletCount":5,"eventRepetition":null,"eventMatch":"matched","eventMatchReason":null,"chainsFolded":1},{"claim":"Recap: Iran says war with US not over Iran and the United States remain at odds over the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the waterway.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"Recap: Iran says war with US not over Iran and the United States remain at odds over the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the waterway.","start":0,"end":185,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:d677506ec9c53440668388e874c45bf4","url":"https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/recap-iran-says-war-us-not-over"},"paraphrase":"Iran and the United States remained at odds over the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to reopen the waterway.","paraphraseBy":"model","kernelType":"what","kernelTypeBy":"model","kernelTypeVerified":true,"kernelTypeCheck":"consistent: reads an action (utterance)","independentChains":1,"status":"single-source","receipts":["https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/recap-iran-says-war-us-not-over"],"disputedWith":null,"firstSeen":"2026-09-27","lastSeen":"2026-09-27","hasRelativeAnchor":false,"evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"originCount":1,"repetition":null,"sourceDomains":{"onDomain":["Middle East Eye"],"offDomain":[],"unknown":[],"label":"1 of 1 source(s) cover this subject's beat (13 domains)","allOffDomain":false},"eventKey":"ev1:b5a9cc98b3588e53","eventSize":4,"eventOriginCount":5,"eventStatus":"corroborated","eventOutletCount":5,"eventRepetition":null,"eventMatch":"matched","eventMatchReason":null,"chainsFolded":1}],"disputeRule":"same-incident","disputeTally":{"rule":"same-incident","reading":"measured","nominated":20,"admitted":0,"incident":3,"different":13,"unresolved":4},"frames":[{"frame":"Trump had previously warned an attack could come after the U.S. midterms this week, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a “historic, one-time opportunity” to topple the Iranian government.","attributedTo":["daily sabah economy","hindu: latest news today from india and the world, breaking news, top headli"],"receipts":["https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/president-trump-says-us-still-has-one-or-two-targets-in-iran/article71652262.ece","https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/trump-threatens-to-strike-one-or-two-targets-still-left-in-iran"],"verbatim":{"text":"Trump had previously warned an attack could come after the U.S. midterms this week, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a “historic, one-time opportunity” to topple the Iranian government.","start":1558,"end":1767,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:9082cfe31f0ea58870292c6e114d3f09"},"paraphrase":"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of a 'historic, one-time opportunity' to topple the Iranian government.","paraphraseBy":"model","evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"frameVerified":true,"frameCheck":"attributed: trump warned"},{"frame":"However, the process has since stalled, with Iran’s security chief saying Sunday that Washington’s response did not sufficiently address Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to negotiations.","attributedTo":["al-monitor — middle east","daily sabah economy"],"receipts":["https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/iran-maintains-indirect-comms-as-it-weighs-us-hormuz-plan-reply","https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-says-it-will-reply-us-response-hormuz-proposal-once-review-over"],"verbatim":{"text":"However, the process has since stalled, with Iran’s security chief saying Sunday that Washington’s response did not sufficiently address Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to negotiations.","start":1229,"end":1457,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:29cba1345fe0223200be4349085d3422"},"paraphrase":"Iran's security chief said Sunday that Washington's response did not sufficiently address Tehran's seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.","paraphraseBy":"model","evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"frameVerified":false,"frameCheck":"unattributed: no speaker and statement verb"},{"frame":"A campaign of heavy bombardment failed to bring a decisive close to the war launched by the US and Israel in late February, and Washington in recent weeks has dialled back military operations in favour of economic pressure.","attributedTo":["foreign policy","france 24 - international breaking news, top stories and headlines"],"receipts":["https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20261004-iran-us-military-middle-east-war-peace-talks","https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/iran-tells-us-there-no-military-solution-middle-east-war","https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Oct/04/iran-tells-us-there-is-no-military-solution-to-west-asia-war"],"verbatim":{"text":"A campaign of heavy bombardment failed to bring a decisive close to the war launched by the US and Israel in late February, and Washington in recent weeks has dialled back military operations in favour of economic pressure.","start":922,"end":1145,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:7221bc6a836b8e797c163e853f185b4a"},"paraphrase":"Frame: A campaign of heavy bombardment failed to bring a decisive close to the US-Israel war against Iran launched in late February.","paraphraseBy":"model","evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"frameVerified":false,"frameCheck":"unattributed: no speaker and statement verb"},{"frame":"Axios and CNN both reported, citing unidentified US officials, that Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and free Iranian funds as part of a final deal on the condition that Iran showed \"concrete progress\" on the nuclear issue.","attributedTo":["al-monitor — middle east","daily sabah economy"],"receipts":["https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-says-it-ready-talks","https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-says-ready-talks","https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/trump-refutes-sanctions-relief-claims-as-iran-voices-will-to-talk"],"verbatim":{"text":"Axios and CNN both reported, citing unidentified US officials, that Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and free Iranian funds as part of a final deal on the condition that Iran showed \"concrete progress\" on the nuclear issue.","start":772,"end":1010,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:624d3a83b652772a1d457569859f251c"},"paraphrase":"Axios and CNN reported, citing unidentified US officials, that Trump was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and free Iranian funds in exchange for concrete progress on the nuclear issue.","paraphraseBy":"model","evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"frameVerified":true,"frameCheck":"attributed: Axios reported"},{"frame":"Trump has cited preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb as a key goal of the war, along with ending its ability to attack its neighbours and creating conditions for Iranians to topple their leadership.","attributedTo":["al-monitor — middle east","daily sabah economy"],"receipts":["https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-says-it-ready-talks","https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-says-ready-talks","https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/trump-refutes-sanctions-relief-claims-as-iran-voices-will-to-talk"],"verbatim":{"text":"Trump has cited preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb as a key goal of the war, along with ending its ability to attack its neighbours and creating conditions for Iranians to topple their leadership.","start":1011,"end":1220,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:624d3a83b652772a1d457569859f251c"},"paraphrase":"Trump has cited preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb as a key goal of the war.","paraphraseBy":"model","evidenceStatus":"receipted","unreceiptedCount":0,"frameVerified":false,"frameCheck":"unattributed: no speaker and statement verb"}],"retired":[{"kind":"kernel","claim":"However, the remaining unhedged 20% is highly exposed to the jet fuel prices currently trading at about $140 per barrel, Ryanair said in its August 2026 traffic stats.","claimVerbatim":{"text":"However, the remaining unhedged 20% is highly exposed to the jet fuel prices currently trading at about $140 per barrel, Ryanair said in its August 2026 traffic stats.","start":1156,"end":1323,"field":"summary","docId":"sha256:2740aae030b1b9b3c8581b5cbd74679d","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ryanair-Warns-Some-Airlines-Could-Struggle-with-Jet-Fuel-Price-Spike.html"},"paraphrase":"Jet fuel prices were trading at about $140 per barrel as of August 2026.","paraphraseBy":"model","retiredAt":"2026-11-11T01:01:37+00:00","reason":"superseded: this claim anchors itself as the most recent known fact (last seen 2026-09-03), but a claim from the SAME reporting thread about the same participants and the same measured quantity, \"Ryanair is one of the most hedged airlines, with about 80% of fuel 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Origins whose upstream is UNKNOWN are shown but never counted toward this tier.","independentOrigins":2,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":2,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-11-05","state":"reported-by-2","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"reported-by-2","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"29da0ec9480c","clusterKey":"29da0ec9480c","claim":"Iran Reports 5 Vessels Hit Mines in Hormuz While Offering 2-Day Reopening Deal","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/iran-hormuz-mines-diplomacy-post-midterms/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=iran-hormuz-mines-diplomacy-post-midterms","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-11-06","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"5d72fa4c0453","clusterKey":"5d72fa4c0453","claim":"Africa's LNG Exports Set to Soar 175% as Buyers Flee Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQaWNKT0ZMUy1yYXZJZWlFWlRYeW1TQllxRXpHOXpaTkdTa0lRbmhhakNBeUN1bTBJdHVGZ1RKcGs5eVpyWHl1Yl9mQm5sME9vUGtlRHFabjZRQ1dlWHQ2UzhReExLRnNiQ3h6Nm1IRVJpdkNPLWxuU0NrbUo3SVlSNFQ2VFVkd1JMNUhMcEQxTEZQVDBNUXNmQlZidEhPbnZXQlFtM9IBqgFBVV95cUxOWnR4MHFMUGVBS0Z6N1pVYmpLOEU5clNJYlUxUDI5VFFOdVU0Ymt0SXJVYmozVXVJZFNoRnBMcUhfZ2Q4YU5ZaW5XUzlYYTdVMGUzT0kzMW5HbmVaSUp0dGxEa0tMU3NhaFFNMEpJWHVwUDJVbm5Sd05NMFR3TklhNDZBU3BvclVFc2M4ZXdNbEFSckxYV3VOdHhMb1dsX3RlbTBXWVhJVE9KQQ?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com","oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-11-05","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null},{"id":"6c694e1db853","clusterKey":"6c694e1db853","claim":"Saudi Arabia Runs 4 Hormuz Channels in 58-Day Window Before Democratic Congress","claimUrl":"https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-hormuz-deal-options-january-3/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-hormuz-deal-options-january-3","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["houseofsaud.com","https://houseofsaud.com/"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-11-06","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"degraded","basis":"primary sources — first-party operational issuers for the strait itself, verified by direct fetch","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-03","verificationNote":"Fetch outage on 1 source(s) — corroboration: unreachable for 7 consecutive fetch attempts (last successful fetch 2026-11-03). The verification stamp has not advanced since the outage began; observed readings from the affected source(s) are older still and are marked stale on their rows.","freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":2,"sourcesFailing":1,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-11-10","failingSince":"2026-11-03"},"discipline":"Honest label: rows carry their verification date, not a live refresh, and they do not silently update. A stamp moves only on a confirmed verification, and each row says which date it speaks for. The live automation status of this layer is stated on the layer itself (the automation field), derived from the fetch-health records below, never asserted ahead of them.","sourceOfRecord":"qa/c3_jobs/hormuz-operational-sources/RESULTS.md (#387)","tripwirePair":{"sources":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"UKMTO/JMIC advisory notes plus NAVAREA IX navigational warnings are the layer-0 tripwire pair: both first-party, both refreshed within 1-3 days of verification, both carrying incident-level Strait state."},"automation":{"status":"degraded","statement":"The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for.","lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:26"},"sources":[{"id":"ukmto-jmic","name":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes","issuer":"UK Maritime Trade Operations (Royal Navy) / coalition Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)","tier":"primary","cadence":"~every 2–3 days","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-10","observed":"Update 106 (18 october)","observedAsOf":"2026-10-18","links":[{"label":"newest advisory (PDF)","url":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-19T09:47:36+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"6daa5c2737e34f4ebbf24239a9172826","lastModified":"Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:46:43 GMT","signature":"sha256:74e01bb311e7fc7481aa1a9ef4f04b6fff2f33ebc175c53ea5b3362a22562a1f","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"linkNote":"Not an index page. The issuer's advisory shelf assembles its list in the reader's browser and serves 'No products to display' to a fetcher (the crawl's own 2026-09-04 log reached the shelf and saw only footer PDFs), while each advisory is served directly under /-/media/ukmto/products/ as update-<n>-jmic-advisory-note-<dd>-<month>.pdf. This link is the newest advisory on record and it is a CURSOR, not a pin: the daily sequence probe (discovery.sequence, producer state in probeLog) walks the number forward every run and moves the link to whatever the issuer has published. Authored 2026-09-05 from search-indexed evidence, not from a fetch by the authoring session (the session VM has no egress); the daily run is the referee. History, never scrubbed: 2026-09-03 repointed the row to two shelf pages the crawl had fetched with 200, and both answered 404 on every fetch after; before that, update-073's own PDF (19 July), which re-fetching daily proved still existed and could never discover update 074.","discovery":{"root":"https://www.ukmto.org/","productPattern":"(?:update|advisor)[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*\\.pdf","note":"UKMTO publishes each JMIC advisory as a numbered PDF, so the index we want is whichever page links the most of them. Discovery runs only when the recorded links fail. Widened 2026-08-28 per the scout's productPattern-change verdict (#506/#536): the 2026-08-28 hunt saw 7 issuer PDFs, none matching the old update-<n>- shape, so the pattern now also accepts advisory-style names while still refusing the observed flyer/chart/BMP files. Safe to widen: discovery only NOMINATES; the row's own extractor must pull a real advisory reading before anything repoints (a wrong guess leaves the row unreadable, never wrongly read). If discovery finds the shelf and the reader still extracts nothing, the next fix class is the extractor's own filename pattern, with the found page as evidence. Sequence probe added 2026-09-05 (#506): the 2026-09-04 crawl's verdict named a productPattern fix, but the seven documents it saw are the shelf's footer charts/booklet/flyer, and the advisory list itself is rendered client-side, so no pattern can match a link the server never sends. The artifacts are served at a predictable media path, so discovery.sequence now walks the advisory number forward directly (every run, not only on failure); this crawl config stays as the fallback when the row's links fail.","sequence":{"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","start":82,"startDate":"2026-08-09","maxProbes":60,"maxGap":2,"note":"The newest advisory known when this was authored (2026-09-05): update-082, dated 09 August, at the path the template renders (search-indexed, not fetched by the authoring session). The walk probes {n}+1.. for each date from the cursor's date forward, accepts only a PDF body, refuses everything if a canary number (n+1000) resolves, and resumes from probeLog.probedThrough. maxGap 2 tolerates two numbers in the series belonging to other JMIC products; maxProbes 60 lets the first catch-up cover the weeks the row spent dead in about two runs. If tomorrow's probeLog shows the sample URLs 404ing, the convention or host moved (the footer PDFs live on sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/...), so change this template, not the crawl."}},"discoveryLog":{"found":false,"reachable":true,"pagesVisited":36,"visited":["https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/warnings","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products","https://www.ukmto.org/indian-ocean","https://www.ukmto.org/","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/weekly-reports","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/mievom-notes","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/industry","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/imo","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/initial-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/daily-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/final-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/incident-report","https://www.ukmto.org/reporting-formats/after-action-report","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/infonotes","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/weekly-dashboard","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-monthly-statistics","https://www.ukmto.org/partner-products/jmic-products/jmic-advisories","https://www.ukmto.org/favicon.ico","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/94a11e200e1cebc1.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/b44f3e0dc3fff5a8.css","https://www.ukmto.org/_next/static/css/82fff4ee3068a208.css","https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/footer-ukmto.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/about-us","https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents","https://www.ukmto.org/best-management-practices","https://www.ukmto.org/contact-us","https://www.ukmto.org/terms-and-conditions","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-main.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-border.svg","https://www.ukmto.org/world-map-text.svg","http://www.ukmto.org"],"pageBudget":40,"maxDepth":3,"candidatesProbed":9,"spilloverPages":15,"documentLinksSeen":7,"scriptedPages":27,"documentLinkSample":["https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/cmf/irta_mar-24.pdf?rev=f68a15866ace44c7ab3859b0b54ceb22","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/charts/q6099_low-res_ed11_2025.pdf?rev=8cbe027613764370a3fec7976a7abe19&amp;hash=C121A5BEFDE188DE15FD9AF3B54ACDA8","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/bmp/bmp-ms_hi-res_s.pdf?rev=2c338d856b0b4c169364b96766b12b27&amp;hash=8A19D49513D46613C44C7B51FC16F8D1","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-flyer-aug-2025.pdf?rev=e496e07a3da342b8bb89f268f21ad9a9","https://sccd.royalnavy.mod.uk/-/media/ukmto/partner-products/jmic-bridge-emergency-reference-cards---middle-east---digital---rev20dec2024.pdf?rev=c496f5a149b9480ab4cc13d8a1da4c06"],"note":"No page links or lists artifacts matching the product pattern, but the crawl DID see 7 document link(s) that do not match it (documentLinkSample). The issuer has likely renamed its files, so the fix is a productPattern change on the row's discovery config, not a URL swap and not a wider crawl.","at":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"Update 106","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-04T09:35:37+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"probeLog":{"found":false,"probes":13,"canary":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-1106-jmic-advisory-note-10-november.pdf","probeBudget":60,"maxGap":2,"template":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-{n:03d}-jmic-advisory-note-{day:02d}-{month}.pdf","highest":106,"highestDate":"2026-10-18","cursorUrl":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","advancedCount":0,"advanced":[],"candidates":[107,108,109],"exhausted":false,"sample":["https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-107-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-108-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf","https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-109-jmic-advisory-note-07-november.pdf"],"probedFrom":"2026-11-07","today":"2026-11-10","probedThrough":"2026-11-07","note":"No newer artifact than 106 (2026-10-18) answers this template for any date through 2026-11-10 (13 probe(s), sample in `sample`). If the issuer has published since, its naming changed, so the fix is the template, not a wider walk.","at":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00"},"observedRef":"Update 106","observedDate":"18 october","observedReadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":23,"observedArtifact":"https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-106-jmic-advisory-note-18-october.pdf","readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"navarea-ix","name":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings","issuer":"National Hydrographic Office, Pakistan Navy (the interior Strait’s WWNWS issuer)","tier":"primary","cadence":"daily","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-10","observed":"434/26 (7 Nov 2026) — BATHYMETRIC SURVEY NAVAREA IX 070300 UTC NOV 26","observedAsOf":"2026-11-07","links":[{"label":"issuer index","url":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/navarea-ix-warnings/"}],"fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastChange":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:8183fd4bfe0161ca7c0e8be7dae4eb554c0c65d2217957a19c04ee98e0144a3a","baselineEstablished":"2026-07-22T16:41:21+00:00"},"observedRef":"434/26","observedDate":"7 Nov 2026","observedReadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","discovery":{"root":"https://hydrography.paknavy.gov.pk/","productPattern":"navarea[^\\\"']*?(\\d{1,4})[^\\\"']*","textPattern":"\\b(\\d{1,4})\\s*/\\s*\\d{2}\\b","note":"NAVAREA IX warnings are printed as rows, not files, so discovery falls back to counting warning references in the page text. The row's own reader is still the referee."},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastReadRef":"434/26","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedContentAgeDays":3,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"corroboration","name":"Corroboration & context","issuer":"US MARAD MSCI · NGA MSI · EIA · Lloyd’s JWC","tier":"primary","cadence":"periodic / event-driven","verifiedAsOf":"2026-11-03","observed":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024 (081538Z MAY 2024) — PERSIAN GULF. QATAR. DNC 10. SURVEY OPERATIONS 08 MAY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BY M/V HORIZON GEOBAY IN AREA BOUND BY 26-09.23N 051-48.00E, 26-06.54N 052-02.87E, 25-31.26N 051-56.93E, 25-33.85N 051-41.16E. WIDE BERTH REQUESTED.","observedAsOf":"2024-05-08","links":[{"label":"NGA MSI broadcast warnings (JSON API)","url":"https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/broadcast-warn?status=active&output=json"}],"note":"Full source records (methods, samples, and the dead-ends we ruled out) publish as each fetcher ships.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","lastChange":null,"consecutiveFailures":7,"lastAttempt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastError":"HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable","etag":null,"lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:ef93699cf872ec61f29f74575b522e6f477ea9d93d029794cf16a3f30fc4640f","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-11T09:47:09+00:00"},"scopeNote":"NGA issues NAVAREA IV, XII and HYDRO only; this covers the APPROACHES to the Strait, never its interior, which is NAVAREA IX (read separately above). Corroboration, not a primary tripwire.","observedRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","observedDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","observedReadAt":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-11-03T09:34:49+00:00","lastReadRef":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024","consecutiveUnread":7,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedContentAgeDays":909,"observedContentAgeNote":"Read successfully on 2026-11-03, but the advisory it names is dated 081538Z MAY 2024, 909 days old. The read is current; the operational picture it describes is not necessarily. Stated so age cannot be mistaken for freshness.","observedStale":true,"observedNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable.","readState":"unreadable-on-last-run","readStateNote":"The latest advisory could not be read on this run: its index did not resolve. The reading below is older than the fetch stamp. Diagnosis: HTTPError: HTTP Error 503: Service Unavailable."}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"strait-of-hormuz","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":5,"entityCaptures":3,"served":8,"live":7,"expired":1,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-11-10","live":{"count":7,"priceAsOf":"2026-11-10","oldestPriceSeen":"2026-10-02","questions":["Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?","US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?"]},"historical":{"count":1,"questions":["US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?"]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-11-11","reading":"7 of 8 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-11-11; the oldest open price was seen 2026-10-02); 1 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"8 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Nov 10, 2026: 7 still open by their own deadline, 1 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":28,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2026-12-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":33.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":8.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"latent","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":28.5,"pricedAt":"2026-11-10","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"confirming","origin":"entity-capture","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by-november-6","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-11-07","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-06","deadlineBasis":"the month and day the question states, read in the year its price was seen (2026) — the question names no year, earlier than the venue's own end date (2026-11-07)","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/us-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31-2026-20260713151243236","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2.75,"pricedAt":"2026-11-06","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2027-01-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-30","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the date the question states in its own words, earlier than the venue's own end date (2027-01-01)","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-in-august-20260702155718116","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-02","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-02-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"What the calibration referee holds","state":"tracked-but-ungraded","pass":null,"reason":"","from":"record","counts":{"tracked":203,"marketQuestions":0,"attentionAlerts":203,"graded":0},"grades":[],"note":"The referee ledger holds 203 rows on this subject. All are cross-domain attention alerts, recorded when the subject surfaced across many verticals at once. None names a market question, so none can be graded against a resolved outcome. We publish no probability of our own.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1154,"outlets":219,"activeDays":43,"firstSeen":"2026-09-26","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-11-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-09-26","end":"2026-11-10","activeDays":43,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days, first and last seen are the days the attention series carries a document"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":5975,"outlets":328,"activeDays":96,"since":"2026-04-12","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-11-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["iran_regime","energy","middle_east"],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.098,"movesWith":[{"name":"iran","together":4889,"sharedDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":20,"ceasefire-deal":4,"sanction-trade":4}},{"name":"oil","together":4080,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"middle east","together":2538,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":2267,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"israel","together":2084,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"yemen","together":1801,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"oil prices","together":1276,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":2715,"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}}],"movesWithLabels":["iran","oil","middle east","saudi arabia","israel","yemen","oil prices","trump"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the strait's operational status","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":26,"reading":"Our coverage of Hormuz is 26% above its 3-week baseline, sustained. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the strait's operational status.","trackedDays":180,"verticalCount":32,"signalCount":205,"verticals":["african-economy","ai-advancements-general","anti-corruption","australia-economy","aviation","central-bank-digital-currency","chinese-overcapacity","critical-minerals","defense-procurement","defense-tech-startups","energy","europe-politics","fda-regulatory-decisions","grid-modernization","india-south-asia","insurance","intelligence-surveillance","iran-regime"],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"rising","glyph":"↑"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-11-10","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 106, dated 18 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 434/26, dated 7 Nov 2026. Read from the issuer Nov 10, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":6,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":6,"reported-by-2":3,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-11-04","end":"2026-11-10"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 2540 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 21 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026): 6 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026), 6 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say Two Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Catch Fire Near Strait Of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 10 publishers from 9 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 4, 2026); “Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, minister says” (corroborated; carried by 9 publishers from 8 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 5, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"measured","count":2434,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":4099,"text":"2434 of the 2540 events in this record's press archive (its 4105 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 1324 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","scope":"0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 56 without a shared typed actor and action class, 10 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":12,"clearRows":13,"capped":1,"pairsJudged":66,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":56,"sameProposition":10}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-11-10","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 56 without a shared typed actor and action class, 10 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged. That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"measured","rule":"same-incident","count":0,"unit":"claim","tally":{"nominated":20,"admitted":0,"incident":3,"different":13,"unresolved":4},"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. The record also holds 4 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 5 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Nov 9, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” at 28% (polymarket, Nov 10, 2026), while our own record holds 6 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":909,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"first-party document: Corroboration & context","why":"its latest document is 909 days old, past the 30-day window; held as provenance"},{"input":"10 further claim rows (of every standing)","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"1 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes: Update 106","asOf":"2026-10-18","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NAVAREA IX navigational warnings: 434/26","asOf":"2026-11-07","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-11-10T09:35:53+00:00"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say Two Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Catch Fire Near Strait Of Hormuz","asOf":"2026-11-04"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, minister says","asOf":"2026-11-05"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"South Korea to expand anti-piracy unit operations closer to Strait of Hormuz","asOf":"2026-11-05"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?: 28% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-11-10"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"UKMTO / JMIC advisory notes reports Update 106, dated 18 october; NAVAREA IX navigational warnings reports 434/26, dated 7 Nov 2026. Read from the issuer Nov 10, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":6,"rowCount":12,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":6,"reported-by-2":3,"single-source":3,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-11-04","end":"2026-11-10"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":"event","text":"The press archive's ladder is a different count: 2540 events over every date in the archive, not this window, 21 of them at three or more separate origins. It counts events, not the claims above."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026): 6 of 12 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 12 claims about Hormuz on the record in the current window (Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026), 6 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say Two Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Catch Fire Near Strait Of Hormuz” (corroborated; carried by 10 publishers from 9 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 4, 2026); “Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, minister says” (corroborated; carried by 9 publishers from 8 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Nov 5, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"measured","count":2434,"unit":"event","rule":"event@2","sentenceCount":4099,"text":"2434 of the 2540 events in this record's press archive (its 4105 who/what/when/where sentences, grouped by the incident they report) rest on a single reporting chain: reported once, and not repeated by anyone who did not copy it. Another 1324 sentences the event rule could not place, so each counts on its own sources and is never folded into single source. They are held, and they are not corroboration."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 56 without a shared typed actor and action class, 10 sharing them over different propositions); 1 further clear cluster beyond the 12-claim cap was not judged. That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"measured","pass":null,"text":"No claim on this record sits beside a live report that gives a different answer about the same incident. That counts live claims only, after any replacement, and only pairs our test could match incident for incident. The record also holds 4 pairs of similar claims the disagreement test could not compare role for role; the test cannot say whether they differ."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 5 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Nov 9, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?” at 28% (polymarket, Nov 10, 2026), while our own record holds 6 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins (of 12 claims in all: 3 are reported by two separate origins and 3 rest on a single source). The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"measured","rows":[{"name":"Corroboration & context","ageDays":909,"documentDate":"081538Z MAY 2024","ref":"NAVAREA P 1540/2024"}],"text":"Earlier documents on file: Corroboration & context, latest dated May 2024 (NAVAREA P 1540/2024). The read above does not rest on them."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"measured","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"measured","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"measured"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":"2026-07-19T04:02:08.330742+00:00","note":"The ledger holds 5 recorded changes for Hormuz, the most recent on Nov 9, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-11-06T15:52:55.198907+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-31T15:48:13.617794+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-11-06T15:52:55.198907+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-31T15:48:13.617794+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-11-07T17:22:51.862439+00:00","heldSince":"2026-11-06T15:52:55.198907+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-11-07T17:22:51.862439+00:00","heldSince":"2026-11-06T15:52:55.198907+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-11-09T15:53:50.710455+00:00","heldSince":"2026-11-07T17:22:51.862439+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/hormuz","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"hormuz\"}}}'","resource":"sb://exhibit/hormuz","page":"https://sigb.ai/exhibit/hormuz/","note":"This page, GET /api/record/hormuz and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading. One honest distinction: get_entity(\"hormuz\") returns the broader live entity dossier — a different, complementary object, not this record."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the comparability pass. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 12 headline clusters on this record (66 pairs judged: 56 without a shared typed actor and action class, 10 sharing them over different propositions); 1 furth"}],"standing":["The first-party maritime and government issuers behind this record are identified and verified — UKMTO/JMIC on a 1–3 day cadence, NAVAREA IX daily. The automated daily fetch cannot currently reach at least one source. A failed fetch moves nothing: the affected source holds its last verified reading, marked on its own row with the date it speaks for. Each row says which date it speaks for, and nothing updates silently.","The coverage regime measures our declared source universe (144 actively-scraped verticals — definitions on the API page), not the whole internet, and it is our attention — not the strait's status.","Cadence, stated plainly: the record refreshes on a daily sweep with intraday market updates. It is maintained, not instantaneous."],"note":"1 section on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-11-10","generatedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-e12baf42","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":{"name":"hormuz primary sources","status":"FRESH","ageHours":6,"limitHours":72,"owner":"hormuz-primary-sources.yml"},"slaNote":"We check the first-party sources at least every 72 hours; the last check found them current."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. Values are never reconciled, so a difference is shown as it is.","exhibitAsOf":"2026-11-10","recordAsOf":"2026-11-10","recordGeneratedAt":"2026-11-10T23:32:55.182096+00:00","recordVersion":"dafc03ef0b04f436","fields":[{"field":"currency.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-11-10"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.state","value":"not-reliably-current","word":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-11-10"},"scope":null},{"field":"primarySources.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.primarySources.status","value":"available","word":"degraded","asOf":"2026-11-03"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.primarySources.state","value":"available","word":"behind","asOf":"2026-11-10"},"scope":{"kind":"different-snapshot","why":"Same state on both sides. The exhibit's reading speaks for 2026-11-03 and the record's for 2026-11-10."}},{"field":"consensus.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.consensus","value":"computed","word":"computed","asOf":"2026-11-11T01:01:37+00:00"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.consensusLedger","value":"computed","word":"current","asOf":"2026-11-10T15:39:47+00:00"},"scope":{"kind":"different-snapshot","why":"Same state on both sides. 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1 of its registered primary sources could not be read (Corroboration & context); 2 parts run behind: the market sensor (through 2026-10-02, 39 days behind) and the issuing-authority documents (through 2026-11-07, 3 days behind).","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-11-07","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NAVAREA IX navigational warnings)","computedAt":"2026-11-10","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":3,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-11-07 (computed 2026-11-10), 3 days before this record's 2026-11-10 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-02","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-11-10","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":39,"note":"3 of 7 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt; 1 of 7 open question(s) carry a venue status that does not confirm a live market; they are shown with their own dates and never make this layer current","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-10-02, 39 days before this record's 2026-11-10 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-11-10"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-11-10T19:50:13.877630Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"curatedReporting":{"key":"curatedReporting","label":"curated reporting rows","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the newest dated reporting row the tracked-entity snapshot carries","computedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"consensusLedger":{"key":"consensusLedger","label":"reporting-consensus ledger","asOf":"2026-11-10","asOfBasis":"the last day of the corpus the ledger was computed over, as its own corpus statement gives it (web/signal-bureau/lib/claims_hormuz.json)","computedAt":"2026-11-10T15:39:47+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-26","to":"2026-11-10","activeDays":43,"documents":1154,"outlets":219},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-11-04","to":"2026-11-10"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-08-29","basis":"registered in the publication registry","alternates":[{"date":"2026-09-26","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":12,"total":12,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","rank":0,"count":4},{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":5},{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","rank":3,"count":3}],"claimsShown":12,"claimsDropped":1,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":9,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 1154 document(s) over 43 active day(s) from 2026-09-26 to 2026-11-10; its 12 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-10 and include every agreement tier (9 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-08-29 — registered in the publication registry; other structures date it 2026-09-26 (first counted document (event-graph))."},"limits":[],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/hormuz","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"hormuz\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":1,"relevanceDropped":4,"relevanceUnmeasured":0,"questionExcluded":0,"cohesionExcluded":0,"fields":{"publisherCount":"Distinct publishers that carried the claim, after wire copies, republished copies and same-portal duplicates are collapsed.","originCount":"Separate origins after publishers behind one canonical address, and publishers relaying one named upstream, are collapsed into one (rule origins@2, which also counts a wire's own site and its tagged republications as that wire, and never counts an aggregator redirect that names no publisher). The tier and the state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when the count was not measured) are computed from it. Not dependency-aware evidentiary independence: an outlet that names no upstream still counts as its own origin.","originsUnknownUpstream":"How many counted origins had no readable text beyond a headline, so whether they relay someone else could not be checked.","originBasis":"The counting, in words, for this row.","deprecatedAliases":{"independentOrigins":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value: the separate origins whose upstream is known, the count the state stands on (null when not measured). Never larger than that count; before 2026-10-12 it carried the publisher count. Read knownOriginCount, publisherCount and originCount.","independentCount":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value (null when not measured) — not dependency-aware evidentiary independence. Read knownOriginCount and originCount.","independenceBasis":"DEPRECATED alias of originBasis, identical value.","independenceState":"DEPRECATED name for whether this row's counts were measured: measured or cannot-measure. originState says whether originCount was computed from origin chains."},"knownOriginCount":"Separate origins whose upstream is known: originCount minus originsUnknownUpstream. The state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when it was not measured) stands on this count; origins whose text could not be read are shown in originCount and never counted."}},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","shard":"web/signal-bureau/lib/hormuz_primary_sources.json","shardSha":"5d17e1e6ba0efeaa","tripwire":{"pair":["ukmto-jmic","navarea-ix"],"note":"Both first-party and both refreshed within 1-3 days of each other. A content change on either is a human alert, not a silent refresh."}},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"tracked-but-ungraded","reason":"","counts":{"tracked":203,"marketQuestions":0,"attentionAlerts":203,"graded":0},"note":"The referee ledger holds 203 rows on this subject. All are cross-domain attention alerts, recorded when the subject surfaced across many verticals at once. None names a market question, so none can be graded against a resolved outcome. We publish no probability of our own."},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"claims changed: +4 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-10","what":"claims changed: +3 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-09","what":"claims changed: +6 −6, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-09","what":"claims changed: +4 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-08","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-08","what":"claims changed: +6 −6, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"claims changed: +4 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-07","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-06","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-06","what":"claims changed: +4 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-06","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-06","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-06","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-05","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-05","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-05","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-05","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-05","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"claims changed: +4 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-11-04","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-11-03","what":"sections changed"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-11-10T23:32:55.182096+00:00","asOf":"2026-11-10","windowStart":"2026-11-04","windowEnd":"2026-11-10","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","sha":"2fbb75b082dada7b"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-11-10T23:26:12.528504+00:00","sha":"bf424361b4272c4f"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-11-10T20:49:51.339766+00:00","sha":"ddabb0cf0989f914"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"75a37ebfb92308ee"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-11-10","sha":"1519b0d5b96f9d16"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"b30768c452f65898"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-11-10T19:50:13.877630Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"69a3106752954157"}],"recordVersion":"dafc03ef0b04f436"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/hormuz.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.record.v1 view over it (earlier tag sb.truth.v1, still listed in its schemaAliases) — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/record/hormuz","mcpTool":"get_topic_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"hormuz","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"full","subject":{"label":"Hormuz","aliases":["close the strait","hormuz","hormuz traffic","strait of hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"],"eventKey":"strait-of-hormuz","entityKeys":["hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"],"mergedSlugs":["strait-of-hormuz"],"eventSlugs":["hormuz","strait-of-hormuz"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Hormuz is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of. The record joins 1154 document(s) from 219 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-08-29","coverageSinceBasis":"registered in the publication registry","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-09-26","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. We serve current state, not forecasts.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"84906b192a00","claim":"Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Say Two Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Catch Fire Near Strait Of Hormuz","claimUrl":"https://newscord.org/article/irgc-navy-says-two-tankers-struck-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz-burning-intensely--Story_20261108_Twotankersexplodebur03a482ae","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Publishers carried this from four or more separate origins. 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An origin whose text could not be read at all (upstream UNKNOWN) is shown but never counted toward this tier.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more separate origins"},"independentOrigins":7,"publisherCount":10,"originCount":9,"originsUnknownUpstream":2,"originState":"measured","knownOriginCount":7,"independentCount":7,"originBasis":"carried by 10 publisher(s) from 9 separate origin(s); 2 of those origin(s) had no readable text, so whether they relay an upstream is UNKNOWN — shown, never counted: the tier stands on the 7 origin(s) whose upstream is known; corroborated needs at least 3 separate origins","independenceBasis":"carried by 10 publisher(s) from 9 separate origin(s); 2 of those origin(s) had no readable text, so whether they relay an upstream is UNKNOWN — shown, never counted: the tier stands on the 7 origin(s) whose upstream is known; corroborated needs at least 3 separate origins","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","wire":false},{"origin":"dailysabah.com","wire":false},{"origin":"eurasiareview.com","wire":false},{"origin":"houseofsaud.com","wire":false},{"origin":"middleeasteye.net","wire":false},{"origin":"newscord.org","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false},{"origin":"tehrantimes.com","wire":false},{"origin":"thecradle.co","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-11-04","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixwFBVV95cUxQbjcyLUxfeTMxaHFnbENrc2tqdlowSDFqWU5DUWtqOWhVUUdSYWdSbFpBRGQ4VHI3Rm5DbDVsLTV6bkM4d3FjcmVPRnpsQlJ6RkNSLWNZX0ZtWURvUExKaGZ2M2diWUFvZWZfSE5FN01PR2FXc1pSN1kyeXhHX0ZFS0k4S1FjSDJLc2ZfbGx2cm9TYW9JSThiZVZIeFQxTnVBXzAwYnhlaGxsN3lwQkxOZTdFRVVpc3RPa2J2M0JZNVduZXA3Z2pz?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-11-04","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/irans-irgc-says-two-tankers-and-tugboat-caught-fire-strait-hormuz","publishedAt":"2026-11-05","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"dailysabah.com","url":"https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/iran-claims-4-tankers-destroyed-in-hormuz-after-hitting-naval-mines","publishedAt":"2026-11-04","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"eurasiareview.com","url":"https://www.eurasiareview.com/06112026-iran-says-two-tankers-hit-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/","publishedAt":"2026-11-06","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"houseofsaud.com","url":"https://houseofsaud.com/irgc-tankers-hormuz-nov6/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=irgc-tankers-hormuz-nov6","publishedAt":"2026-11-06","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"middleeasteye.net","url":"https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/irgc-says-three-tankers-ablaze-strait-hormuz","publishedAt":"2026-11-08","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"newscord.org","url":"https://newscord.org/article/irgc-navy-says-two-tankers-struck-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz-burning-intensely--Story_20261108_Twotankersexplodebur03a482ae","publishedAt":"2026-11-06","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Says-Four-Oil-Tankers-Destroyed-by-Mines-Near-Strait-of-Hormuz.html","publishedAt":"2026-11-04","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"tehrantimes.com","url":"https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/531881/Two-tankers-strike-mines-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-IRGC-Navy","publishedAt":"2026-11-06","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"thecradle.co","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqgFBVV95cUxPR2I1XzYzQ1RyWklFeVo0QThsU3ZaRElnVmJLZ3VMTFdFdk1pcjVSbTA3cXJKakJjZUIwR0VXZ0ZhcGU3VHc5VjVEcldScFZQZXdadTQyOXRiVGxhRDV6aE15T09iT0RTMkdyX1dvVk9sclpGaWw5aDVpMW52UHh5cVVpOGQ2ZmNHQm4xZDVyZFlBaVd4Sjgxa3lmR0laUUp1Qlp2TDlVNUtQZw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-11-04","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":10,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"headline-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["hormuz"],"state":"corroborated","subjectRelevance":{"state":"clear","basis":"receipt-attribution:title","reason":"the subject is named in the claim's title"},"claimBasis":"titleRepr","claimMemberUrl":null,"titleReprRelevance":null,"cohesion":{"rule":"cohesion@1","size":13,"spanDays":4,"linkDensity":0.7436,"densityBar":0.4,"state":"clear","reason":"0.744 of member pairs match directly (bar 0.400)"}},{"clusterKey":"6afdd272a254","claim":"Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Hormuz, minister says","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/11/iraq-has-reached-understandings-us-allow-oil-exports-through-hormuz-minister-says","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Publishers carried this from four or more separate origins. 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